Lightning 5, Maple Leafs 2 — Mar 7, 2026

TBLLightning

5–2

FINAL

TORMaple Leafs

Shots33TBL

Shots29TOR

Model stars

1KucherovTBLA+2RaddyshTBLA3HagelTBLA

Mar 7, 2026 · Scotiabank Arena

Goal horn off

TBLLightning

5–2

FINAL P3

TORMaple Leafs

Shots

TBL33

Model stars

1KucherovTBLA+2RaddyshTBLA3HagelTBLA

Shots

TOR29

Mar 7, 2026 · Scotiabank Arena

Goal horn off

Situation:

TBL58.0%TOR42.0%

Includes power plays, overtime and empty-net play. Chance share is not win probability.

Even-Strength Edge

≈ roughly even

Unavailable in this filter.

Even-strength xG share is unavailable in this filter.

Special Teams Edge

TBL held a slight edge

TBL created 0.27 more power-play xG.

TBL

0.97xGTOR

0.70xG

01.252.5

Goaltending Edge

TBL above expected

TBL gained the goalie advantage.

TBL

+0.9GSAxTOR

-1.0GSAx

−40+4

Finishing Luck

TBL finished above expected

TBL are benefiting more from finishing luck.

TBL

+0.96G−xGTOR

-0.93G−xG

−40+4

Even-strength edge

≈ roughly even

Even-strength xG share is unavailable in this filter.

Special teams edge

TBL held a slight edge

TBL

0.97xGTOR

0.70xG

01.252.5

Goaltending edge

TBL above expected

TBL

+0.9GSAxTOR

-1.0GSAx

−40+4

Finishing luck

TBL finished above expected

TBL

+0.96G−xGTOR

-0.93G−xG

−40+4

All situations

TBL

TOR

Period:

Chances:

View:

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Win probability

Team:

TBL

100.0% WP

0.0% WP

TOR

Scrub game time · 60:00

TOR 2-5 TBL

End of Game

60:00

5v5

TBL

100.0%

TOR

0.0%

Event impact

Unavailable for this event

WP reflects the current game state at 5v5.

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Game flow pressure

Attacking pressure over time based on shots and chance quality.

TBL had the longest sustained stretch from 5:35 P1 to 4:30 P1, while TBL's best response came from 4:20 P3 to 3:20 P3.

TOR pressureTBL pressureGoalPower play

Scrub game time · 0:00 P3

0:00 P3TOR had the edge

TOR

Pressure

2.31

2 shots · 0.18 xG

TBL

Pressure

0.57

1 shot · 0.01 xG

High-danger chances: TOR 0 · TBL 0. Tap or drag across the chart, or use the time slider.

1.9xG2.0

1.2xG0.7

2.3xG1.5

TBL at TOR

Game ControlChance share: TBL 58.0%, TOR 42.0%Collapse

Shot qualityExplore shot locations and the quality of each scoring chance.Collapse

Game storyFollow win probability and attacking pressure as the game unfolds.Collapse

Win probability

Goaltender duelBoth starters on results, workload and the quality of shots they facedCollapse

PlayersTop game grade: Nikita Kucherov (TBL), A+Collapse

LinesFive-on-five forward lines, defensive pairings, and matchupsExplore

Event timelineEvery goal, penalty and shot in orderExplore

Box scoreOfficial team, skater, and goalie stats.Explore

Game summary

Game flow pressure