Capitals 2, Sabres 1 — Mar 12, 2026

WSHCapitals

2–1

FINAL

BUFSabres

Shots22WSH

Shots30BUF

Model stars

1WilsonWSHA+2ChychrunWSHA+3MalenstynBUFA

Mar 12, 2026 · KeyBank Center

Goal horn off

WSHCapitals

2–1

FINAL P3

BUFSabres

Shots

WSH22

Model stars

1WilsonWSHA+2ChychrunWSHA+3MalenstynBUFA

Shots

BUF30

Mar 12, 2026 · KeyBank Center

Goal horn off

Situation:

WSH52.8%BUF47.2%

Includes power plays, overtime and empty-net play. Chance share is not win probability.

Even-Strength Edge

≈ roughly even

Unavailable in this filter.

Even-strength xG share is unavailable in this filter.

Special Teams Edge

≈ roughly even

Power-play chance quality was roughly even.

WSH

1.19xGBUF

0.99xG

01.252.5

Goaltending Edge

Both above expected · WSH better

WSH gained the goalie advantage.

WSH

+2.3GSAxBUF

+0.8GSAx

−40+4

Finishing Luck

Both below expected · WSH closer

WSH are benefiting more from finishing luck.

WSH

-1.64G−xGBUF

-2.25G−xG

−40+4

Even-strength edge

≈ roughly even

Even-strength xG share is unavailable in this filter.

Special teams edge

≈ roughly even

WSH

1.19xGBUF

0.99xG

01.252.5

Goaltending edge

Both above expected · WSH better

WSH

+2.3GSAxBUF

+0.8GSAx

−40+4

Finishing luck

Both below expected · WSH closer

WSH

-1.64G−xGBUF

-2.25G−xG

−40+4

All situations

WSH

BUF

Period:

Chances:

View:

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Win probability

Team:

WSH

100.0% WP

0.0% WP

BUF

Scrub game time · 60:00

BUF 1-2 WSH

End of Game

60:00

6v5 · EN

WSH

100.0%

BUF

0.0%

Event impact

Unavailable for this event

BUF have the extra attacker at 6v5.

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Game flow pressure

Attacking pressure over time based on shots and chance quality.

WSH had the longest sustained stretch from 1:35 P3 to 0:00 P3, while BUF's best response came from 16:55 P1 to 15:45 P1.

BUF pressureWSH pressureGoalPower play

Scrub game time · 0:00 P3

0:00 P3WSH dominated

BUF

Pressure

1.08

2 shots · 0.27 xG

WSH

Pressure

3.75

2 shots · 0.98 xG

High-danger chances: BUF 0 · WSH 1. Tap or drag across the chart, or use the time slider.

0.5xG2.1

1.2xG1.1

2.8xG1.4

WSH at BUF

Game ControlChance share: WSH 52.8%, BUF 47.2%Collapse

Shot qualityExplore shot locations and the quality of each scoring chance.Collapse

Game storyFollow win probability and attacking pressure as the game unfolds.Collapse

Win probability

Goaltender duelBoth starters on results, workload and the quality of shots they facedCollapse

PlayersTop game grade: Tom Wilson (WSH), A+Collapse

LinesFive-on-five forward lines, defensive pairings, and matchupsExplore

Event timelineEvery goal, penalty and shot in orderExplore

Box scoreOfficial team, skater, and goalie stats.Explore

Game summary

Game flow pressure