Maple Leafs 2, Sabres 3 — Mar 14, 2026

TORMaple Leafs

2–3

FINAL

BUFSabres

Shots18TOR

Shots33BUF

Model stars

1MetsaBUFA+2NorrisBUFA+3BensonBUFA+

Mar 14, 2026 · KeyBank Center

Goal horn off

TORMaple Leafs

2–3

FINAL SO

BUFSabres

Shots

TOR18

Model stars

1MetsaBUFA+2NorrisBUFA+3BensonBUFA+

Shots

BUF33

Mar 14, 2026 · KeyBank Center

Goal horn off

Situation:

TOR34.7%BUF65.3%

Includes power plays, overtime and empty-net play. Chance share is not win probability.

Even-Strength Edge

≈ roughly even

Unavailable in this filter.

Even-strength xG share is unavailable in this filter.

Special Teams Edge

BUF had the edge

BUF created 1.07 more power-play xG.

TOR

0.15xGBUF

1.22xG

01.252.5

Goaltending Edge

Both above expected · TOR better

TOR gained the goalie advantage.

TOR

+2.4GSAxBUF

+0.3GSAx

−40+4

Finishing Luck

Both below expected · TOR closer

TOR are benefiting more from finishing luck.

TOR

-0.32G−xGBUF

-1.37G−xG

−40+4

Even-strength edge

≈ roughly even

Even-strength xG share is unavailable in this filter.

Special teams edge

BUF had the edge

TOR

0.15xGBUF

1.22xG

01.252.5

Goaltending edge

Both above expected · TOR better

TOR

+2.4GSAxBUF

+0.3GSAx

−40+4

Finishing luck

Both below expected · TOR closer

TOR

-0.32G−xGBUF

-1.37G−xG

−40+4

All situations

TOR

BUF

Period:

Chances:

View:

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Win probability

Team:

TOR

0.0% WP

100.0% WP

BUF

Scrub game time · 65:00

BUF 2-2 TOR

End of Game

65:00

3v3

TOR

0.0%

BUF

100.0%

Event impact

Unavailable for this event

WP reflects the current game state at 3v3.

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Game flow pressure

Attacking pressure over time based on shots and chance quality.

BUF had the longest sustained stretch from 17:50 P1 to 16:05 P1, while BUF's best response came from 10:45 P2 to 9:00 P2.

BUF pressureTOR pressureGoalPower play

Scrub game time · 0:00 OT

0:00 OTBUF held a slight edge

BUF

Pressure

0.94

2 shots · 0.22 xG

TOR

Pressure

0.00

0 shots · 0.00 xG

High-danger chances: BUF 0 · TOR 0. Tap or drag across the chart, or use the time slider.

1.1xG1.8

1.0xG2.6

0.8xG1.8

0.4xG0.5

TOR at BUF

Game ControlChance share: TOR 34.7%, BUF 65.3%Collapse

Shot qualityExplore shot locations and the quality of each scoring chance.Collapse

Game storyFollow win probability and attacking pressure as the game unfolds.Collapse

Win probability

Goaltender duelBoth starters on results, workload and the quality of shots they facedCollapse

PlayersTop game grade: Zach Metsa (BUF), A+Collapse

LinesFive-on-five forward lines, defensive pairings, and matchupsExplore

Event timelineEvery goal, penalty and shot in orderExplore

Box scoreOfficial team, skater, and goalie stats.Explore

Game summary

Game flow pressure