Lightning 5, Islanders 3 — Oct 10, 2026

TBLLightning

5–3

FINAL

NYIIslanders

Shots26TBL

Shots23NYI

Model stars

1SchaeferNYIA+2DeAngeloNYIA+3HorvatNYIA+

Oct 10, 2026 · UBS Arena

Goal horn off

TBLLightning

5–3

FINAL P3

NYIIslanders

Shots

TBL26

Model stars

1SchaeferNYIA+2DeAngeloNYIA+3HorvatNYIA+

Shots

NYI23

Oct 10, 2026 · UBS Arena

Goal horn off

Situation:

TBL51.6%NYI48.4%

Includes power plays, overtime and empty-net play. Chance share is not win probability.

Even-Strength Edge

≈ roughly even

Unavailable in this filter.

Even-strength xG share is unavailable in this filter.

Special Teams Edge

NYI held a slight edge

NYI created 0.42 more power-play xG.

TBL

0.59xGNYI

1.00xG

01.252.5

Goaltending Edge

Both below expected · TBL better

TBL gained the goalie advantage.

TBL

-0.7GSAxNYI

-2.1GSAx

−40+4

Finishing Luck

Both above expected · TBL higher

TBL are benefiting more from finishing luck.

TBL

+2.54G−xGNYI

+0.70G−xG

−40+4

Even-strength edge

≈ roughly even

Even-strength xG share is unavailable in this filter.

Special teams edge

NYI held a slight edge

TBL

0.59xGNYI

1.00xG

01.252.5

Goaltending edge

Both below expected · TBL better

TBL

-0.7GSAxNYI

-2.1GSAx

−40+4

Finishing luck

Both above expected · TBL higher

TBL

+2.54G−xGNYI

+0.70G−xG

−40+4

All situations

TBL

NYI

Period:

Chances:

View:

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Win probability

Team:

TBL

100.0% WP

0.0% WP

NYI

Scrub game time · 60:00

NYI 3-5 TBL

End of Game

60:00

5v5

TBL

100.0%

NYI

0.0%

Event impact

Unavailable for this event

WP reflects the current game state at 5v5.

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Game flow pressure

Attacking pressure over time based on shots and chance quality.

NYI had the longest sustained stretch from 0:15 P2 to 19:05 P3, while TBL's best response came from 1:35 P3 to 0:30 P3.

NYI pressureTBL pressureGoalPower play

Scrub game time · 0:00 P3

0:00 P3TBL had the edge

NYI

Pressure

0.40

2 shots · 0.00 xG

TBL

Pressure

3.61

1 shot · 0.57 xG

High-danger chances: NYI 0 · TBL 1. Tap or drag across the chart, or use the time slider.

0.6xG0.4

0.9xG1.5

1.1xG0.6

TBL at NYI

Game ControlChance share: TBL 51.6%, NYI 48.4%Collapse

Shot qualityExplore shot locations and the quality of each scoring chance.Collapse

Game storyFollow win probability and attacking pressure as the game unfolds.Collapse

Win probability

Goaltender duelBoth starters on results, workload and the quality of shots they facedCollapse

PlayersTop game grade: Matthew Schaefer (NYI), A+Collapse

LinesFive-on-five forward lines, defensive pairings, and matchupsExplore

Event timelineEvery goal, penalty and shot in orderExplore

Box scoreOfficial team, skater, and goalie stats.Explore

Game summary

Game flow pressure