Same GSAx, different shot samples
The first result stands out more. A shot near 50% is the hardest to predict; very low or very high probabilities are more predictable. With the same GSAx, more variance lowers the index. Stopping harder shots also earns more GSAx, which can offset that.
Scope and limitations
This measures verified 5v5 shot-stopping only, not a goalie’s overall play. The variance math treats each shot as independent, so it won’t capture every real-world link between shots. It describes how much shot results vary — not how confident we are in the goalie’s ability. It needs verified shots and variance to compute; if inputs are missing, no grade is shown.
Save percentage, wins, shutouts, and danger-tier stats don’t add bonus points to the grade. This explanation stays fixed no matter what situation or adjustment is selected elsewhere. Its verified model totals can differ from the xGA and GSAx shown in a game breakdown.