Bands show position percentiles; axis labels show current rolling values.
Dashed outline: peer average in the fixed reference. Outside = above average; inside = below average. All axes point outward for stronger results.
Player value: 2.70 Peer range: 1.68 – 4.20 xGF/60
MeanJoe Pavelski
Lower Higher (better)
Player 2.70 · mean 2.54. Higher raw values rank higher.
Rolling profile against a fixed reference group
Fixed rolling-profile reference · 430 players. Values use the same history and smoothing as the radar.
History, sample sizes & calculation
Higher radar percentiles mean stronger recorded results against the fixed reference, including older seasons. These are separate from this season’s league percentile. Each player has a different amount of covered history. Weighted minutes and attempts give recent games more influence. “Prior” is the share contributed by a frozen league baseline: it is higher when a player has less evidence, and differs by metric because each uses its own smoothing strength. It is not a confidence score.
On-ice offense · xGF/60
62.1 weighted minutes · 76% prior
On-ice defense · xGA/60
62.1 weighted minutes · 87% prior
Chance generation · ixG/60
62.1 weighted minutes · 76% prior
Shot quality · ixG/attempt
11.8 weighted attempts · 68% prior
Finishing · goals above expected/60
11.8 weighted attempts · 77% prior
History through Oct 24, 2023. Recent games count more than older games. History carries across seasons and stays unchanged while inactive. On-ice results are shared; finishing describes results rather than established talent.
Recent scoring against his own season
Recent scoring against his own season
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Every metric name opens its definition; the full list lives in Metrics.
Traditional statistics cover all situations. Supporting five-on-five analyses use completed games, raw adjustment and exposure from xG model v4. The two samples can differ.
An em dash means unavailable, not zero. A partial season remains partial. Where a panel reports evidence coverage, its rates use only the covered games. History never substitutes a different model, and a missing appearance interrupts a rolling model window.
Shot maps use the same shot model as Game Center and show which model version scored recent shots beside the rink. Older seasons can use earlier model versions. High danger means a model scoring probability of at least 0.20 on an unblocked attempt; for goalies, medium danger is 0.08 to 0.20 and low is below 0.08.
Special-team buckets include the wider recorded man-advantage and man-down states, read from the player’s own team; for a goalie, penalty kill means facing a power play. Their ranks need 100 recorded minutes and at least 30 qualified peers; below 100 minutes, penalty-kill percentiles are provisional. Playoff values have no ranks or percentiles. Team share is player ice time divided by team ice time in that situation, over the games the player dressed. Zone starts describe faceoff-started five-on-five shifts and exclude on-the-fly starts.
Penalties count events, including one for a double minor; bench and served-by roles are excluded, and victimless infractions have no drawn role. EPV added sums changes in the probability that the possessing team scores next; it is not standings points or an isolated player grade. Rolling windows never cross seasons or season types, and a missed game is not a zero-performance appearance. Career rates use summed counts and exposure, never an average of season rates; a missing contributing season withholds its career metric, and Performance begins in 2023–24.
Five-on-five · time together from shift charts (1,207:26 of his 5v5 ice time) · xG share together and apart
Teammate
Pos
TOI together
xG share together
GF–GA
CF%
Him without
Teammate without
Joe Thornton
C
601:19
50.9%
29–24
54.7%
55.7%
57.0%
Brent Burns
D
562:55
57.1%
19–21
58.8%
50.0%
50.5%
Timo Meier
R
479:22
51.9%
22–18
50.8%
54.4%
53.6%
Marc-Edouard Vlasic
D
444:42
51.9%
18–17
48.8%
54.2%
47.2%
Justin Braun
D
434:38
47.7%
17–14
45.8%
56.2%
44.8%
Joonas Donskoi
R
319:52
57.9%
14–13
55.1%
51.8%
51.9%
Joakim Ryan
D
314:58
53.2%
11–16
56.9%
53.5%
49.9%
Brenden Dillon
D
314:20
54.0%
18–10
54.0%
53.2%
52.1%
Evander Kane
L
228:15
58.8%
8–11
55.5%
52.2%
41.7%
Dylan DeMelo
D
186:21
55.0%
7–9
50.7%
53.1%
48.2%
Kevin Labanc
R
177:31
51.5%
9–6
57.7%
53.7%
52.2%
Melker Karlsson
C
162:28
46.9%
8–5
43.9%
54.5%
45.2%
Without columns are five-on-five xG share apart: him on the ice without that teammate, and the teammate without him (with this club). Bars are centred on an even 50%.
2017–18 playoffs
Official playoff totals · no peer ranks, since playoff samples are too small for a fair comparison
Games
10
21:25 per game
Goals
2
2 on the power play
Assists
6
official
Points
8
6 power-play points
Plus-minus
-3
even strength and shorthanded
Shots
30
6.7% shooting
Playoff games
Official totals; expected-goal columns are five-on-five.
Strong 0.87 individual expected goals per 60 (24th of 190)
Strong 0.87 individual expected goals per 60 (24th of 190)
53.2%40th of 190
Strong 53.2% on-ice expected goal share at five-on-five (40th of 190)
Strong 53.2% on-ice expected goal share at five-on-five (40th of 190)
Average 2.46 on-ice expected goals against per 60 (81st of 190)
Average 2.46 on-ice expected goals against per 60 (81st of 190)
Defensive metrics
Five-on-five on-ice suppression; individual events in all situations.
Suppression
Player
Percentile
Rank
58.44
115 / 19040th
—
—
—
0.059
93 / 19051st
Puck management
Player
Percentile
Rank
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
Physical style
Player
Percentile
Rank
—
—
—
—
—
—
Context · not graded
Player value: 58.44 Peer range: 43.89 – 65.68 / 60
MeanJoe Pavelski
Lower (better)Higher
Player 58.44 · mean 57.09. Lower raw values are better.
On-ice attempts against per 60, including blocks.
Evidence coverage: high danger 29 of 82 games.
Discipline & puck management
Recorded season event counts · all situations
Penaltiesnet —
Taken —Drawn —
Puck eventsnet —
Giveaways —Takeaways —
Blocks
—
all situations
Hits
—
all situations
Both penalty counts cover 32 of 82 games with every drawn role recorded.
Strong 5.25 power-play points per 60 (26th of 104)
Strong 5.25 power-play points per 60 (26th of 104)
Power play
262:46 recorded ice time · peers need 100 minutes
Share of team PP
—
in games dressed
PP points
23
goals + assists
Unit xGF / 60
7.39
team without: —
Power play rates
Player
Percentile
Rank
5.25
26 / 10476th
—
—
—
11.65
40 / 10462nd
1.71
40 / 10462nd
7.39
42 / 10460th
—
—
—
Player value: 5.25 Peer range: 1.34 – 8.03 / 60
MeanJoe Pavelski
Lower Higher (better)
Player 5.25 · mean 4.30. Higher raw values rank higher.
Recorded goals plus assists per 60 in this scope; widened power-play and penalty-kill scopes.
Evidence coverage: goals 12 of 78 games · team time 32 of 82 games.
Penalty kill
22:51 recorded ice time · peers need 100 minutes
Share of team PK
—
in games dressed
SH points
0
goals + assists
Unit xGA / 60
7.78
team without: —
Penalty kill rates
Player
Percentile
Rank
7.78
—
—
—
—
99.78
—
—
—
—
3.68
—
No rank yet
Player value: 7.78 Peer range: 5.59 – 9.33 / 60
MeanJoe Pavelski
Lower (better)Higher
Player 7.78 · mean 6.96. Lower raw values are better. Provisional PK percentile: under 100 recorded minutes. Smaller samples are less reliable; official ranks need 100 minutes.
Raw on-ice expected goals against per 60; the Season metrics sample.
Provisional PK percentile: under 100 recorded minutes. Smaller samples are less reliable; official ranks need 100 minutes.
Evidence coverage: goals 14 of 41 games · high danger 13 of 41 games · team time 32 of 82 games.
19:15 TOI per game (14:38 at five-on-five · 3:12 PP · 0:17 PK)
19:15 TOI per game (14:38 at five-on-five · 3:12 PP · 0:17 PK)
Results vs expected
Five-on-five · what happened beside the chances created and allowed
Chances
Player
Percentile
Rank
2.80
48 / 19075th
2.46
81 / 19058th
53.2
40 / 19079th
Goals
Player
Percentile
Rank
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
Luck & variance
Player
Percentile
Rank
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
Context · not graded
Player value: 2.80 Peer range: 1.48 – 3.60 / 60
MeanJoe Pavelski
Lower Higher (better)
Player 2.80 · mean 2.48. Higher raw values rank higher.
Raw on-ice expected goals for per 60; the Season metrics sample.
5v5 goals
—
23 of 82 games
5v5 expected
56.1–49.2
xG for–against
EPV added
+3.23
82 attributed games · all situations
On ice vs off ice
San Jose's share with Joe Pavelski on the ice against the same team without him.
Share
On ice and off ice
On-minus-off gap in percentage points
xGF%
On ice 53.2% · Off ice unavailable
—
CF%
On ice 52.5% · Off ice unavailable
—
GF%
On ice unavailable · Off ice unavailable
—
On iceOff ice
Scale 40–65% · marker at 50% · right column is the on-minus-off gap in points
Steady 8 points in the last 10 games (0.80 per game vs 0.80 this season)
Steady 8 points in the last 10 games (0.80 per game vs 0.80 this season)
1.10 points per game at home · 0.51 away
1.10 points per game at home · 0.51 away
82 games · most recent vs MIN, L 3–6: 1 G, 0 A
82 games · most recent vs MIN, L 3–6: 1 G, 0 A
Shot map
All 311 attempts
Joe Pavelski
311 attempts28.78 xG22 G
Goal22Shot on goal202Missed shot87Blocked shot0Larger dot = higher xG
Shooting by zone
Hover a row to light it up · click to pin
Zone
Att
G
xG
Goal rate
Exp.
Goals vs expected
G−xG
Point
42
2
1.6
4.8%
3.7%
+0.4
Right circle
33
1
0.8
3.0%
2.4%
+0.2
Below goal line
1
0
0.0
0.0%
3.9%
0.0
Left circle
7
0
0.3
0.0%
3.7%
−0.3
Inner slot
79
10
10.5
12.7%
13.2%
−0.5
Outer slot
24
1
1.9
4.2%
8.1%
−0.9
High slot
125
8
13.7
6.4%
11.0%
−5.7
All zones
311
22
28.8
7.1%
9.3%
−6.8
Finishing evidence. Scoring 7.1% on chances vs 9.3% expected (−2.2 points), with the largest shortfall in the high slot.
Sorted by goals minus expected goals. Goal rate is goals per unblocked attempt against the expected rate.
Shot profile
Context · not graded
On-net rate
72.0%
224 of 311 attempts on goal
Slot share
65.6%
204 from the inner or high slot
Average distance
26.1 ft
from the centre of the net
Rebound attempts / 60
0.65
17 this season · all situations
Shot types
311 attempts
Type
Share
Sh%
G−xG
Wrist
46.9%
5.4%
−7.5
Slap
12.5%
6.5%
−1.7
Deflected
12.2%
27.3%
+2.4
Backhand
10.9%
4.5%
−1.7
Tip-in
8.7%
26.7%
+1.6
Snap
7.4%
16.7%
+0.4
Other
1.3%
—
−0.3
Share is context, not a grade. Sh% counts shots on goal only.
High-danger chances
Model goal probability ≥ 0.20
Conversion10.0%−17.5 pts vs expected
Actual10.0%
Expected27.5%
Attempts
20
6.4% of these attempts
Goals
2
9% of all goals
Expected goals
5.5
0.28 xG per attempt
G−xG
−3.5
below model
Usage by situation
Ice time, share of team ice time, scoring and scoring rate, with where shifts start.
Scope
TOI/GP
Team share
G
A
P
P/60
Five-on-five
14:38
—
14
22
36
1.80
Power play
3:12
—
7
16
23
5.25
Penalty kill
0:17
—
0
0
0
0.00
Other
1:08
—
6
6
12
7.73
All situations
19:15
—
27
44
71
2.70
Where the 71 points come from · All situations
Goals27 · 1.03/60
Primary assists— · —/60
Secondary assists— · —/60
Zone starts — offensive of OZ + DZ
Offensive —Neutral —Defensive —
Shifts
— a game · — average
Zone starts: five-on-five · Shifts: all situations
Faceoffs
All situations · zones are read from his side of the draw · values only; no peer ranks yet
Win %
54.9%
500 of 911 draws
Draws per game
11.11
82 games
Offensive zone
58.1%
365 draws
Defensive zone
53.8%
288 draws
Power play
61.5%
174 draws
9 NHL seasons: 689 games, 583 points
9 NHL seasons: 689 games, 583 points
Totals cover all situations; rates are five-on-five.
Elite90+Strong70–89Average30–69Weak10–29Poor<10Bar length is the peer percentile, so longer is always better · tick at the 50th
Player value: 1.80 Peer range: 0.34 – 3.17 / 60
MeanJoe Pavelski
Lower Higher (better)
Player 1.80 · mean 1.55. Higher raw values rank higher.
Recorded five-on-five goals plus assists per 60 minutes.
How to read these comparisons
Player values are recorded season results. Peer averages are arithmetic means of qualified players in the selected group; each row uses the same peers for its average and rank. Ranks use unrounded values, with tied players sharing a rank and the next rank skipped. Lower xG against ranks better. Bar colours are the five performance tiers; context rows are blue and not graded. Differences from the average describe the season, not isolated player impact.
Goals above expected is the raw goals-minus-xG rate, without the shrinkage used in the older finishing comparison. On-ice measures include teammates, opponents and deployment. These recorded metrics describe different quantities from the adjusted Season score components beside them.
Skaters need 20 appearances and 300 five-on-five minutes; quality and finishing also need 75 unblocked attempts. Early in a season these minimums scale down with games played so far. At least 30 peers must qualify. Playoff ranks are withheld. A reviewed axis whose own evidence fails is withheld and shown with its reason rather than ranked. These workload rules do not express statistical confidence.
Position uses the NHL listed primary position available now; it does not establish historical position or actual deployment. Broad groups are forwards, defence and goalies. This version uses the current model’s covered games only.
Season vs reference
Per game · all situations
Metric2017–18ReferenceDiff
0.270.36-0.09
0.540.48+0.06
0.800.84-0.03
2.732.88-0.14
Reference: 2016–17 · 81 games.
Each game against his own season
Points in each game, coloured by how good the game wasTrailing 10 games, per gameSeason 0.80
