Bands show position percentiles; axis labels show current rolling values.
Dashed outline: peer average in the fixed reference. Outside = above average; inside = below average. All axes point outward for stronger results.
Player value: 2.68 Peer range: 1.68 – 4.20 xGF/60
MeanBrock Nelson
Lower Higher (better)
Player 2.68 · mean 2.54. Higher raw values rank higher.
Rolling profile against a fixed reference group
Fixed rolling-profile reference · 430 players. Values use the same history and smoothing as the radar.
History, sample sizes & calculation
Higher radar percentiles mean stronger recorded results against the fixed reference, including older seasons. These are separate from this season’s league percentile. Each player has a different amount of covered history. Weighted minutes and attempts give recent games more influence. “Prior” is the share contributed by a frozen league baseline: it is higher when a player has less evidence, and differs by metric because each uses its own smoothing strength. It is not a confidence score.
On-ice offense · xGF/60
52.7 weighted minutes · 79% prior
On-ice defense · xGA/60
52.7 weighted minutes · 88% prior
Chance generation · ixG/60
52.7 weighted minutes · 79% prior
Shot quality · ixG/attempt
15.9 weighted attempts · 61% prior
Finishing · goals above expected/60
15.9 weighted attempts · 72% prior
History through Oct 21, 2023. Recent games count more than older games. History carries across seasons and stays unchanged while inactive. On-ice results are shared; finishing describes results rather than established talent.
Recent scoring against his own season
Recent scoring against his own season
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Every metric name opens its definition; the full list lives in Metrics.
Traditional statistics cover all situations. Supporting five-on-five analyses use completed games, raw adjustment and exposure from xG model v4. The two samples can differ.
An em dash means unavailable, not zero. A partial season remains partial. Where a panel reports evidence coverage, its rates use only the covered games. History never substitutes a different model, and a missing appearance interrupts a rolling model window.
Shot maps use the same shot model as Game Center and show which model version scored recent shots beside the rink. Older seasons can use earlier model versions. High danger means a model scoring probability of at least 0.20 on an unblocked attempt; for goalies, medium danger is 0.08 to 0.20 and low is below 0.08.
Special-team buckets include the wider recorded man-advantage and man-down states, read from the player’s own team; for a goalie, penalty kill means facing a power play. Their ranks need 100 recorded minutes and at least 30 qualified peers; below 100 minutes, penalty-kill percentiles are provisional. Playoff values have no ranks or percentiles. Team share is player ice time divided by team ice time in that situation, over the games the player dressed. Zone starts describe faceoff-started five-on-five shifts and exclude on-the-fly starts.
Penalties count events, including one for a double minor; bench and served-by roles are excluded, and victimless infractions have no drawn role. EPV added sums changes in the probability that the possessing team scores next; it is not standings points or an isolated player grade. Rolling windows never cross seasons or season types, and a missed game is not a zero-performance appearance. Career rates use summed counts and exposure, never an average of season rates; a missing contributing season withholds its career metric, and Performance begins in 2023–24.
Five-on-five · time together from shift charts (997:27 of his 5v5 ice time) · xG share together and apart
Teammate
Pos
TOI together
xG share together
GF–GA
CF%
Him without
Teammate without
Nick Leddy
D
364:57
46.3%
13–19
44.9%
46.9%
47.1%
Ryan Strome
C
340:57
47.6%
16–18
47.1%
46.3%
43.5%
Calvin de Haan
D
329:57
44.3%
13–17
46.4%
47.7%
49.0%
Thomas Hickey
D
311:37
48.7%
14–16
43.8%
45.7%
45.7%
Anthony Beauvillier
R
302:31
38.5%
10–17
41.9%
50.1%
46.3%
Dennis Seidenberg
D
300:48
46.7%
14–17
46.8%
46.7%
47.8%
Johnny Boychuk
D
280:34
47.0%
8–10
43.8%
46.6%
50.3%
Josh Bailey
R
223:06
45.5%
8–11
43.3%
47.1%
52.8%
Shane Prince
L
206:15
49.2%
8–10
44.4%
46.1%
43.4%
Travis Hamonic
D
182:34
43.4%
10–12
43.0%
47.5%
45.0%
Anders Lee
L
170:34
48.0%
5–11
49.5%
46.4%
51.0%
Adam Pelech
D
167:04
44.3%
7–9
42.4%
47.1%
41.8%
Without columns are five-on-five xG share apart: him on the ice without that teammate, and the teammate without him (with this club). Bars are centred on an even 50%.
Did not play in the 2016–17 playoffs.
Every playoff run
All covered playoff runs (2015–16 onward). Traditional totals are all situations; analytical columns use matching five-on-five coverage.
Strong 0.86 individual expected goals per 60 (22nd of 188)
Strong 0.86 individual expected goals per 60 (22nd of 188)
46.9%141st of 188
Weak 46.9% on-ice expected goal share at five-on-five (141st of 188)
Weak 46.9% on-ice expected goal share at five-on-five (141st of 188)
Weak 2.71 on-ice expected goals against per 60 (164th of 188)
Weak 2.71 on-ice expected goals against per 60 (164th of 188)
Defensive metrics
Five-on-five on-ice suppression; individual events in all situations.
Suppression
Player
Percentile
Rank
61.08
177 / 1886th
—
—
—
0.063
150 / 18820th
Puck management
Player
Percentile
Rank
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
Physical style
Player
Percentile
Rank
—
—
—
—
—
—
Context · not graded
Player value: 61.08 Peer range: 43.71 – 65.96 / 60
MeanBrock Nelson
Lower (better)Higher
Player 61.08 · mean 54.65. Lower raw values are better.
On-ice attempts against per 60, including blocks.
Evidence coverage: high danger 21 of 81 games.
Discipline & puck management
Recorded season event counts · all situations
Penaltiesnet —
Taken —Drawn —
Puck eventsnet —
Giveaways —Takeaways —
Blocks
—
all situations
Hits
—
all situations
Both penalty counts cover 25 of 81 games with every drawn role recorded.
Weak 2.41 power-play points per 60 (92nd of 102)
Weak 2.41 power-play points per 60 (92nd of 102)
Power play
149:14 recorded ice time · peers need 100 minutes
Share of team PP
—
in games dressed
PP points
6
goals + assists
Unit xGF / 60
5.96
team without: —
Power play rates
Player
Percentile
Rank
2.41
92 / 10210th
—
—
—
13.27
20 / 10281st
1.64
37 / 10264th
5.96
72 / 10230th
—
—
—
Player value: 2.41 Peer range: 0.59 – 8.41 / 60
MeanBrock Nelson
Lower Higher (better)
Player 2.41 · mean 4.37. Higher raw values rank higher.
Recorded goals plus assists per 60 in this scope; widened power-play and penalty-kill scopes.
Evidence coverage: goals 12 of 74 games · team time 25 of 81 games.
Penalty kill
47:52 recorded ice time · peers need 100 minutes
Share of team PK
—
in games dressed
SH points
1
goals + assists
Unit xGA / 60
8.29
team without: —
Penalty kill rates
Player
Percentile
Rank
8.29
—
—
—
—
114.07
—
—
—
—
0.47
—
No rank yet
Player value: 8.29 Peer range: 4.56 – 9.31 / 60
MeanBrock Nelson
Lower (better)Higher
Player 8.29 · mean 6.52. Lower raw values are better. Provisional PK percentile: under 100 recorded minutes. Smaller samples are less reliable; official ranks need 100 minutes.
Raw on-ice expected goals against per 60; the Season metrics sample.
Provisional PK percentile: under 100 recorded minutes. Smaller samples are less reliable; official ranks need 100 minutes.
Evidence coverage: goals 6 of 49 games · high danger 6 of 49 games · team time 25 of 81 games.
15:39 TOI per game (12:35 at five-on-five · 1:51 PP · 0:35 PK)
15:39 TOI per game (12:35 at five-on-five · 1:51 PP · 0:35 PK)
Results vs expected
Five-on-five · what happened beside the chances created and allowed
Chances
Player
Percentile
Rank
2.39
93 / 18851st
2.71
164 / 18813th
46.9
141 / 18825th
Goals
Player
Percentile
Rank
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
Luck & variance
Player
Percentile
Rank
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
Context · not graded
Player value: 2.39 Peer range: 1.48 – 3.76 / 60
MeanBrock Nelson
Lower Higher (better)
Player 2.39 · mean 2.36. Higher raw values rank higher.
Raw on-ice expected goals for per 60; the Season metrics sample.
5v5 goals
—
16 of 81 games
5v5 expected
40.6–46.0
xG for–against
EPV added
-1.50
81 attributed games · all situations
On ice vs off ice
New York's share with Brock Nelson on the ice against the same team without him.
Share
On ice and off ice
On-minus-off gap in percentage points
xGF%
On ice 46.9% · Off ice unavailable
—
CF%
On ice 45.1% · Off ice unavailable
—
GF%
On ice unavailable · Off ice unavailable
—
On iceOff ice
Scale 40–65% · marker at 50% · right column is the on-minus-off gap in points
Hot 7 points in the last 10 games (0.70 per game vs 0.56 this season)
Hot 7 points in the last 10 games (0.70 per game vs 0.56 this season)
0.56 points per game at home · 0.55 away
0.56 points per game at home · 0.55 away
81 games · most recent vs OTT, W 4–2: 1 G, 2 A
81 games · most recent vs OTT, W 4–2: 1 G, 2 A
Shot map
All 215 attempts
Brock Nelson
215 attempts19.56 xG20 G
Goal20Shot on goal153Missed shot42Blocked shot0Larger dot = higher xG
Shooting by zone
Hover a row to light it up · click to pin
Zone
Att
G
xG
Goal rate
Exp.
Goals vs expected
G−xG
High slot
99
13
9.3
13.1%
9.4%
+3.7
Right circle
6
1
0.2
16.7%
3.3%
+0.8
Below goal line
1
0
0.0
0.0%
1.1%
0.0
Left circle
6
0
0.1
0.0%
1.7%
−0.1
Point
30
0
0.7
0.0%
2.3%
−0.7
Outer slot
14
0
1.0
0.0%
7.1%
−1.0
Inner slot
59
6
8.3
10.2%
14.0%
−2.3
All zones
215
20
19.6
9.3%
9.1%
+0.4
Finishing evidence. Scoring 9.3% on chances against 9.1% expected, tracking the model across 7 zones.
Sorted by goals minus expected goals. Goal rate is goals per unblocked attempt against the expected rate.
Shot profile
Context · not graded
On-net rate
80.5%
173 of 215 attempts on goal
Slot share
73.5%
158 from the inner or high slot
Average distance
26.4 ft
from the centre of the net
Rebound attempts / 60
0.28
6 this season · all situations
Shot types
215 attempts
Type
Share
Sh%
G−xG
Wrist
63.3%
11.2%
−0.2
Snap
13.0%
17.4%
+1.9
Tip-in
8.4%
0.0%
−1.3
Slap
5.6%
0.0%
−0.7
Backhand
4.7%
12.5%
−0.3
Wrap-around
3.7%
0.0%
−0.5
Other
1.4%
—
+1.6
Share is context, not a grade. Sh% counts shots on goal only.
High-danger chances
Model goal probability ≥ 0.20
Conversion18.2%−5.3 pts vs expected
Actual18.2%
Expected23.4%
Attempts
11
5.1% of these attempts
Goals
2
10% of all goals
Expected goals
2.6
0.23 xG per attempt
G−xG
−0.6
below model
Usage by situation
Ice time, share of team ice time, scoring and scoring rate, with where shifts start.
Scope
TOI/GP
Team share
G
A
P
P/60
Five-on-five
12:35
—
16
16
32
1.88
Power play
1:51
—
1
5
6
2.41
Penalty kill
0:35
—
0
1
1
1.25
Other
0:38
—
3
3
6
6.96
All situations
15:39
—
20
25
45
2.13
Where the 45 points come from · All situations
Goals20 · 0.95/60
Primary assists— · —/60
Secondary assists— · —/60
Zone starts — offensive of OZ + DZ
Offensive —Neutral —Defensive —
Shifts
— a game · — average
Zone starts: five-on-five · Shifts: all situations
Faceoffs
All situations · zones are read from his side of the draw · values only; no peer ranks yet
Win %
43.7%
346 of 791 draws
Draws per game
9.77
81 games
Offensive zone
40.4%
213 draws
Defensive zone
45.3%
300 draws
Power play
54.8%
42 draws
Every game · rest counts days off before the game; the playoff field is the standings' top three per division plus two wild cards
Split
GP
G
A
P
P/GP
5v5 xG share
Team record
Venue
Home
41
9
14
23
0.56
48.2%
22–12–7
Away
40
11
11
22
0.55
45.1%
18–17–5
Rest
Back-to-back
15
5
6
11
0.73
48.8%
6–4–5
1 day of rest
44
11
15
26
0.59
45.1%
23–17–4
2+ days of rest
21
3
4
7
0.33
48.9%
11–7–3
Opponent
vs Eastern
53
13
15
28
0.53
45.7%
25–20–8
vs Western
28
7
10
17
0.61
49.2%
15–9–4
vs playoff teams
45
16
18
34
0.76
46.6%
23–18–4
vs non-playoff teams
36
4
7
11
0.31
47.3%
17–11–8
Recent
Last 10
10
4
3
7
0.70
53.4%
7–3–0
By period and score state
Split
G
A
P
5v5 xG share
5v5 CF%
5v5 GF–GA
Period
1st period
4
9
13
—
—
—
2nd period
8
5
13
—
—
—
3rd period
7
11
18
—
—
—
Overtime
1
0
1
—
—
—
Score state · 5v5 on ice
Leading
—
—
—
47.2%
40.2%
14–17
Tied
—
—
—
44.9%
45.1%
16–21
Trailing
—
—
—
48.5%
51.0%
11–13
From play-by-play; shootouts excluded. Score state is his team's, before each event.
Official totals; expected-goal columns are five-on-five.
Elite90+Strong70–89Average30–69Weak10–29Poor<10Bar length is the peer percentile, so longer is always better · tick at the 50th
Player value: 1.88 Peer range: 0.32 – 2.88 / 60
MeanBrock Nelson
Lower Higher (better)
Player 1.88 · mean 1.43. Higher raw values rank higher.
Recorded five-on-five goals plus assists per 60 minutes.
How to read these comparisons
Player values are recorded season results. Peer averages are arithmetic means of qualified players in the selected group; each row uses the same peers for its average and rank. Ranks use unrounded values, with tied players sharing a rank and the next rank skipped. Lower xG against ranks better. Bar colours are the five performance tiers; context rows are blue and not graded. Differences from the average describe the season, not isolated player impact.
Goals above expected is the raw goals-minus-xG rate, without the shrinkage used in the older finishing comparison. On-ice measures include teammates, opponents and deployment. These recorded metrics describe different quantities from the adjusted Season score components beside them.
Skaters need 20 appearances and 300 five-on-five minutes; quality and finishing also need 75 unblocked attempts. Early in a season these minimums scale down with games played so far. At least 30 peers must qualify. Playoff ranks are withheld. A reviewed axis whose own evidence fails is withheld and shown with its reason rather than ranked. These workload rules do not express statistical confidence.
Position uses the NHL listed primary position available now; it does not establish historical position or actual deployment. Broad groups are forwards, defence and goalies. This version uses the current model’s covered games only.
Season vs reference
Per game · all situations
Metric2016–17ReferenceDiff
0.250.32-0.07
0.310.17+0.14
0.560.49+0.06
2.142.04+0.10
Reference: 2015–16 · 81 games.
Each game against his own season
Points in each game, coloured by how good the game wasTrailing 10 games, per gameSeason 0.56
Points
7
4 G · 3 A
Team record
7–3–0
in his games
5v5 xG share
53.4%
on ice
5v5 ixG
2.2
individual expected goals
Avg TOI
15:46
all situations
Tiles cover the last 10 games.
12 NHL seasons: 857 games, 592 points
12 NHL seasons: 857 games, 592 points
Totals cover all situations; rates are five-on-five.
