Bands show position percentiles; axis labels show current rolling values.
Dashed outline: average forward in the fixed reference. Outside = above average; inside = below average. All axes point outward for stronger results.
Player value: 2.87 Peer range: 1.68 – 4.20 xGF/60
MeanNikolaj Ehlers
Lower Higher (better)
Player 2.87 · mean 2.54. Higher raw values rank higher.
Rolling profile against a fixed reference group
Fixed rolling-profile reference · 430 players. Values use the same history and smoothing as the radar.
History, sample sizes & calculation
Higher radar percentiles mean stronger recorded results against the fixed reference, including older seasons. These are separate from this season’s league percentile. Each player has a different amount of covered history. Weighted minutes and attempts give recent games more influence. “Prior” is the share contributed by a frozen league baseline: it is higher when a player has less evidence, and differs by metric because each uses its own smoothing strength. It is not a confidence score.
On-ice offense · xGF/60
1128.7 weighted minutes · 15% prior
On-ice defense · xGA/60
1128.7 weighted minutes · 26% prior
Chance generation · ixG/60
1128.7 weighted minutes · 15% prior
Shot quality · ixG/attempt
250.9 weighted attempts · 9% prior
Finishing · goals above expected/60
250.9 weighted attempts · 14% prior
History through Oct 18, 2026. Recent games count more than older games. History carries across seasons and stays unchanged while inactive. On-ice results are shared; finishing describes results rather than established talent.
Nikolaj Ehlers
30 attempts2.15 xG1 G
Goal1Shot on goal18Missed shot11Blocked shot0Larger dot = higher xG
Shooting by zone
Zone
Shots
xG
Goals
S%
Point
9
0.4
0
0.0%
High slot
5
0.7
1
20.0%
Left circle
5
0.2
0
0.0%
Right circle
4
0.2
0
0.0%
Inner slot
3
0.4
0
0.0%
Outer slot
3
0.3
0
0.0%
Below goal line
1
0.0
0
0.0%
Hover or focus a row to light up those attempts on the rink.
Finishing evidence. Scoring 3.3% on chances vs 7.2% expected (−3.8 points), with the largest shortfall in the point.
Shot types30 attempts
Snap63%
Wrist23%
Slap7%
Deflected3%
Tip-in3%
High-danger chances
Expected
0.7
Goals
0
Conversion
0.0%
Model 10.3%
7 high-danger attempts · Model is the expected conversion on those attempts.
Recent form
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Season vs reference
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1 award records
Stanley Cup · 2025–26
Every metric name opens its definition; the full list lives in Metrics.
Traditional statistics cover all situations. Supporting five-on-five analyses use completed games, raw adjustment and exposure from xG model v4. The two samples can differ.
An em dash means unavailable, not zero. A partial season remains partial. Where a panel reports evidence coverage, its rates use only the covered games. History never substitutes a different model, and a missing appearance interrupts a rolling model window.
Shot maps use the same shot model as Game Center and show which model version scored recent shots beside the rink. Older seasons can use earlier model versions. High danger means a model scoring probability of at least 0.20 on an unblocked attempt; for goalies, medium danger is 0.08 to 0.20 and low is below 0.08.
Special-team buckets include the wider recorded man-advantage and man-down states, read from the player’s own team; for a goalie, penalty kill means facing a power play. Their ranks need 100 recorded minutes and at least 30 qualified peers; below 100 minutes, penalty-kill percentiles are provisional. Playoff values have no ranks or percentiles. Team share is player ice time divided by team ice time in that situation, over the games the player dressed. Zone starts describe faceoff-started five-on-five shifts and exclude on-the-fly starts.
Penalties count events, including one for a double minor; bench and served-by roles are excluded, and victimless infractions have no drawn role. EPV added sums changes in the probability that the possessing team scores next; it is not standings points or an isolated player grade. Rolling windows never cross seasons or season types, and a missed game is not a zero-performance appearance. Career rates use summed counts and exposure, never an average of season rates; a missing contributing season withholds its career metric, and Performance begins in 2023–24.
Expected goals against while the player is on the ice (fewer is better)
Chance creation
Expected goals from the player’s own shots
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals on the player’s own shots
Assisting
Primary assists plus half of secondary assists
Each is measured against expectation, per 60 rated minutes: plus is above, minus below.
How this is calculated
Score breakdown
Component
Weight
Scaled
Contribution
Offense
25%
−0.161
−0.040
Defense
25%
−0.198
−0.049
Chance creation
20%
−0.361
−0.072
Finishing
10%
−0.230
−0.023
Assisting
20%
0.227
+0.045
Performance rate
−0.139
Per 60 rated minutes, over the scored appearances. Each component is scaled separately, then weighted; the contributions add to the performance rate at full precision, so rounded figures may differ.
Scoring
Season grade is the qualified peer percentile on the same letter bands as Game Grade — A+ ≥88, A ≥78, A− ≥68, B+ ≥58, B ≥50, B− ≥42, C+ ≥35, C ≥28, C− ≥22, D ≥15, F below 15 — and needs qualification plus at least 30 eligible peers. The letter describes this season’s performance, not permanent ability.
Comparisons
Rank and component percentiles compare this season’s qualified forwards on unrounded rates over every checked appearance; Game Grade compares one appearance with frozen historical games.
Component percentiles are never averaged into the score. Recent history is optional, from up to three completed prior seasons; small samples are provisional.
Coverage
Qualification: 3 covered appearances, 50.6 rated minutes, and 90% appearance and workload coverage. Minimums advance with league progress; valid low-sample results stay visible.
Rated minutes exclude play with a goalie pulled: 4.5 min excluded; official TOI 161.9 min.
Coverage: complete. Updated .
Method
Five weighted components add to the performance rate. Five-on-five offense and defense account for recorded teammates, opponents and game state, so shared on-ice results are not isolated individual ability. Finishing is scored against the shot model’s historical-shooter expectation and assisting counts primary assists plus half of secondary assists; both use the strength baseline, chance creation its positional baseline.
Legacy rating
Legacy season score: 19.1 / 100. The fixed exposure baseline is 50; this is separate from the season peer grade.
Below average: 46.7% on-ice expected goal share at five-on-five (45th of 59)
Below average: 46.7% on-ice expected goal share at five-on-five (45th of 59)
Poor: 2.86 on-ice expected goals against per 60 (55th of 59)
Poor: 2.86 on-ice expected goals against per 60 (55th of 59)
Defensive metrics
Five-on-five on-ice suppression; individual events in all situations.
Suppression & events
Player
Percentile
Rank
46.47
17 / 59
1.64
25 / 36
0.077
59 / 59
0.37
56 / 59
1.11
51 / 59
0.37
51 / 59
4.82
54 / 59
1.11
6 / 59
Player value: 46.47 Peer range: 35.80 – 73.74 / 60
MeanNikolaj Ehlers
Lower (better)Higher
Player 46.47 · mean 51.93. Lower raw values are better.
On-ice attempts against per 60, including blocks.
Discipline & puck management
Recorded season event counts · all situations
Penaltiesnet +3
Taken 0Drawn 3
Puck eventsnet -12
Giveaways 13Takeaways 1
Blocks
1
all situations
Hits
3
all situations
5.79 power-play points per 60
5.79 power-play points per 60
Power play
41:26 recorded ice time · peers need 100 minutes
Share of team PP
66.0%
in games dressed
PP points
4
goals + assists
Unit xGF / 60
6.98
team without: 9.84
Power play rates
Player
Percentile
Rank
5.79
—
—
5.79
—
—
13.03
—
—
1.39
—
—
6.98
—
—
7.24
—
—
Player value: 5.79 Peer distribution not published for this axis.
Nikolaj Ehlers
Lower Higher (better)
Player 5.79 · mean —. Higher raw values rank higher. Needs 100 minutes in this special-teams scope.
Recorded goals plus assists per 60 in this scope; widened power-play and penalty-kill scopes.
Needs 100 minutes in this special-teams scope.
Penalty kill
0:01 recorded ice time · peers need 100 minutes
Share of team PK
0.0%
in games dressed
SH points
0
goals + assists
Unit xGA / 60
0.00
team without: 4.70
Penalty kill rates
Player
Percentile
Rank
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
0.00
—
—
Player value: 0.00 Peer distribution not published for this axis.
Nikolaj Ehlers
Lower (better)Higher
Player 0.00 · mean —. Lower raw values are better. Fewer than 30 qualified peers.
Raw on-ice expected goals against per 60; the Season metrics sample.
Fewer than 30 qualified peers.
16:11 TOI per game (10:59 at five-on-five · 4:09 PP)
16:11 TOI per game (10:59 at five-on-five · 4:09 PP)
Below average: 0.48 individual expected goals per 60 (41st of 59)
Below average: 0.48 individual expected goals per 60 (41st of 59)
Results vs expected
Five-on-five · what happened beside the chances created and allowed
On-ice results
Player
Percentile
Rank
0.61
29 / 31
2.51
25 / 59
3.05
19 / 31
2.86
55 / 59
16.7
T29 / 31
46.7
45 / 59
2.0
30 / 31
87.8
21 / 31
89.85
28 / 31
Player value: 0.61 Peer range: 0.00 – 5.45 / 60
MeanNikolaj Ehlers
Lower Higher (better)
Player 0.61 · mean 2.57. Higher raw values rank higher.
On-ice goals for per 60 in this scope; excludes shootouts. Covered games only; withheld below 90% of exposure games.
5v5 goals
1–5
9 of 10 games
5v5 expected
4.6–5.2
xG for–against
EPV added
—
Attribution unavailable
On ice vs off ice
Carolina's share with Nikolaj Ehlers on the ice against the same team without him.
Share
On ice and off ice
On-minus-off gap in percentage points
xGF%
On ice 46.7%; off ice 61.1%.
61.146.7
-14.3
CF%
On ice 58.5%; off ice 60.5%.
60.558.5
-2.0
GF%
On ice 16.7%; off ice 56.7%.
56.716.7
-40.0
On iceOff ice
Scale 15–65% · marker at 50% · right column is the on-minus-off gap in points
5 points over the last 10 games
5 points over the last 10 games
10 games · most recent at CGY, L 2–3: 0 G, 0 A
10 games · most recent at CGY, L 2–3: 0 G, 0 A
Official totals; expected-goal columns are five-on-five.
Ice time, share of team ice time, scoring and scoring rate, with where shifts start.
Scope
TOI/GP
Team share
G
A
P
P/60
Five-on-five
10:59
24.1%
0
1
1
0.55
Power play
4:09
66.0%
1
3
4
5.79
Penalty kill
0:00
0.0%
0
0
0
0.00
Other
1:04
—
0
0
0
0.00
All situations
16:11
26.6%
1
4
5
1.85
Where the 5 points come from · All situations
Goals1 · 0.37/60
Primary assists4 · 1.48/60
Secondary assists0 · 0.00/60
0.0% of points are secondary assists. Peer average 24.9%. Primary points per 60 (1.85).
Zone starts 64.1% offensive of OZ + DZ · 72th percentile
Offensive 33.8%Neutral 47.3%Defensive 18.9%
Shifts
19.2 a game · 0:51 average
Zone starts: five-on-five · Shifts: all situations
Very good playmaking is the lone bright spot, as he struggles with defense, chance creation, and finishing — 2.86 on-ice expected goals against per 60 (55th of 59).
12 NHL seasons: 766 games, 596 points
12 NHL seasons: 766 games, 596 points
Totals cover all situations; rates are five-on-five.
Shading: peer percentile that season. Bold: career high.
Season metrics
2026–27 · five-on-five · against qualified peers
Production
Player
Percentile
Rank
0.55
52 / 59
0.00
T44 / 59
0.55
27 / 59
Shooting & finishing
Player
Percentile
Rank
0.48
41 / 59
4.37
48 / 59
10.39
40 / 59
0.055
49 / 58
-0.48
49 / 58
Above averageNear averageBelow averageBars and shaded cells show peer percentile, so more is always better · tick at the 50th
Player value: 0.55 Peer range: 0.00 – 3.85 / 60
MeanNikolaj Ehlers
Lower Higher (better)
Player 0.55 · mean 1.69. Higher raw values rank higher.
Recorded five-on-five goals plus assists per 60 minutes.
How to read these comparisons
Player values are recorded season results. Peer averages are arithmetic means of qualified players in the selected group; each row uses the same peers for its average and rank. Ranks use unrounded values, with tied players sharing a rank and the next rank skipped. Lower xG against ranks better. Green/red differences show favorable/unfavorable values versus average, not isolated player impact. Brass marks top-ten ranks.
Goals above expected is the raw goals-minus-xG rate, without the shrinkage used in the older finishing comparison. On-ice measures include teammates, opponents and deployment. These recorded metrics describe different quantities from the adjusted Season score components beside them.
Skaters need 20 appearances and 300 five-on-five minutes; quality and finishing also need 75 unblocked attempts. Early in a season these minimums scale down with games played so far. At least 30 peers must qualify. Playoff ranks are withheld. A reviewed axis whose own evidence fails is withheld and shown with its reason rather than ranked. These workload rules do not express statistical confidence.
Position uses the NHL listed primary position available now; it does not establish historical position or actual deployment. Broad groups are forwards, defence and goalies. This version uses the current model’s covered games only.
Recent form
Trailing ten appearances. Shaded games have fewer than ten in the window.
Trailing 10 games · Points / gamePoints in each gameSeason points / game
0.50 P / GP
Oct 18, 2026@ CGY
Trailing 10 · Points / game
0.50
Points in this game
0
Season points / game
0.50
10 appearances in window10 with five-on-five model coverage
