Bands show position percentiles; axis labels show current rolling values.
Dashed outline: peer average in the fixed reference. Outside = above average; inside = below average. All axes point outward for stronger results.
Player value: 2.63 Peer range: 1.68 – 4.20 xGF/60
MeanMatthew Tkachuk
Lower Higher (better)
Player 2.63 · mean 2.54. Higher raw values rank higher.
Rolling profile against a fixed reference group
Fixed rolling-profile reference · 430 players. Values use the same history and smoothing as the radar.
History, sample sizes & calculation
Higher radar percentiles mean stronger recorded results against the fixed reference, including older seasons. These are separate from this season’s league percentile. Each player has a different amount of covered history. Weighted minutes and attempts give recent games more influence. “Prior” is the share contributed by a frozen league baseline: it is higher when a player has less evidence, and differs by metric because each uses its own smoothing strength. It is not a confidence score.
On-ice offense · xGF/60
12.5 weighted minutes · 94% prior
On-ice defense · xGA/60
12.5 weighted minutes · 97% prior
Chance generation · ixG/60
12.5 weighted minutes · 94% prior
Shot quality · ixG/attempt
8.0 weighted attempts · 76% prior
Finishing · goals above expected/60
8.0 weighted attempts · 83% prior
History through Oct 12, 2023. Recent games count more than older games. History carries across seasons and stays unchanged while inactive. On-ice results are shared; finishing describes results rather than established talent.
Recent scoring against his own season
Recent scoring against his own season
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2 award records
Stanley Cup · 2024–25
Stanley Cup · 2023–24
Every metric name opens its definition; the full list lives in Metrics.
Traditional statistics cover all situations. Supporting five-on-five analyses use completed games, raw adjustment and exposure from xG model v4. The two samples can differ.
An em dash means unavailable, not zero. A partial season remains partial. Where a panel reports evidence coverage, its rates use only the covered games. History never substitutes a different model, and a missing appearance interrupts a rolling model window.
Shot maps use the same shot model as Game Center and show which model version scored recent shots beside the rink. Older seasons can use earlier model versions. High danger means a model scoring probability of at least 0.20 on an unblocked attempt; for goalies, medium danger is 0.08 to 0.20 and low is below 0.08.
Special-team buckets include the wider recorded man-advantage and man-down states, read from the player’s own team; for a goalie, penalty kill means facing a power play. Their ranks need 100 recorded minutes and at least 30 qualified peers; below 100 minutes, penalty-kill percentiles are provisional. Playoff values have no ranks or percentiles. Team share is player ice time divided by team ice time in that situation, over the games the player dressed. Zone starts describe faceoff-started five-on-five shifts and exclude on-the-fly starts.
Penalties count events, including one for a double minor; bench and served-by roles are excluded, and victimless infractions have no drawn role. EPV added sums changes in the probability that the possessing team scores next; it is not standings points or an isolated player grade. Rolling windows never cross seasons or season types, and a missed game is not a zero-performance appearance. Career rates use summed counts and exposure, never an average of season rates; a missing contributing season withholds its career metric, and Performance begins in 2023–24.
Needs 4 more covered appearances. Needs 50.2 more rated minutes. The app has checked scoring results for 13 of 42 appearances (31.0%); season standings require at least 90%. Scoring data cover less than 90% of recorded workload or could not be verified.
vs 0 qualified forwards
Percentiles appear once this player qualifies for season standings. The score breakdown is under How this is calculated.
How this is calculated
Score breakdown
Component
Weight
Scaled
Contribution
Offense
25%
0.730
+0.183
Defense
25%
−0.105
−0.026
Chance creation
20%
0.375
+0.075
Finishing
10%
−0.158
−0.016
Assisting
20%
0.465
+0.093
Performance rate
0.309
Per 60 rated minutes, over the scored appearances. Each component is scaled separately, then weighted; the contributions add to the performance rate at full precision, so rounded figures may differ.
Scoring
Season grade is the qualified peer percentile on the same letter bands as Game Grade — A+ ≥88, A ≥78, A− ≥68, B+ ≥58, B ≥50, B− ≥42, C+ ≥35, C ≥28, C− ≥22, D ≥15, F below 15 — and needs qualification plus at least 30 eligible peers. The letter describes this season’s performance, not permanent ability.
Comparisons
Rank and component percentiles compare this season’s qualified forwards on unrounded rates over every checked appearance; Game Grade compares one appearance with frozen historical games.
Component percentiles are never averaged into the score. Recent history is optional, from up to three completed prior seasons; small samples are provisional.
Coverage
Qualification: 17 covered appearances, 289.5 rated minutes, and 90% appearance and workload coverage. Minimums advance with league progress; valid low-sample results stay visible.
Rated minutes exclude play with a goalie pulled: 4.5 min excluded; official TOI 243.8 min.
Coverage: partial. Updated .
Method
Five weighted components add to the performance rate. Five-on-five offense and defense account for recorded teammates, opponents and game state, so shared on-ice results are not isolated individual ability. Finishing is scored against the shot model’s historical-shooter expectation and assisting counts primary assists plus half of secondary assists; both use the strength baseline, chance creation its positional baseline.
Legacy rating
Legacy season score: 89.1 / 100. The fixed exposure baseline is 50; this is separate from the season peer grade.
2023–24 playoffs
Official playoff totals · no peer ranks, since playoff samples are too small for a fair comparison
Games
24
18:30 per game
Goals
6
0 on the power play
Assists
16
official
Points
22
6 power-play points
Plus-minus
0
even strength and shorthanded
Shots
83
7.2% shooting
Playoff games
Official totals; expected-goal columns are five-on-five.
Most often with Sam Bennett: 735 five-on-five minutes, 58.0% xG share together
Most often with Sam Bennett: 735 five-on-five minutes, 58.0% xG share together
Five-on-five · time together from shift charts (1,083:30 of his 5v5 ice time) · xG share together and apart
Teammate
Pos
TOI together
xG share together
GF–GA
CF%
Him without
Teammate without
Sam Bennett
C
734:55
58.0%
32–18
57.9%
51.4%
54.5%
Carter Verhaeghe
C
691:14
57.5%
24–17
58.2%
53.5%
57.0%
Brandon Montour
D
443:00
56.8%
16–7
58.6%
55.6%
51.5%
Niko Mikkola
D
414:16
53.7%
16–7
56.5%
57.8%
51.8%
Gustav Forsling
D
353:45
59.0%
10–11
59.7%
54.6%
54.9%
Oliver Ekman-Larsson
D
293:12
52.7%
9–8
55.8%
57.3%
56.9%
Nick Cousins
C
225:09
56.1%
8–4
59.2%
56.1%
47.2%
Dmitry Kulikov
D
224:40
57.1%
10–6
57.8%
55.8%
55.9%
Aaron Ekblad
D
188:56
59.7%
5–7
58.9%
55.3%
54.2%
Anton Lundell
C
125:28
42.1%
2–6
52.8%
57.8%
53.6%
Aleksander Barkov
C
115:50
61.5%
1–1
68.6%
55.6%
58.6%
Eetu Luostarinen
C
103:32
52.4%
1–1
54.8%
56.5%
56.3%
Without columns are five-on-five xG share apart: him on the ice without that teammate, and the teammate without him (with this club). Bars are centred on an even 50%.
Strong 0.92 individual expected goals per 60 (22nd of 119)
Strong 0.92 individual expected goals per 60 (22nd of 119)
56.4%17th of 119
Strong 56.4% on-ice expected goal share at five-on-five (17th of 119)
Strong 56.4% on-ice expected goal share at five-on-five (17th of 119)
Average 2.61 on-ice expected goals against per 60 (71st of 119)
Average 2.61 on-ice expected goals against per 60 (71st of 119)
Defensive metrics
Five-on-five on-ice suppression; individual events in all situations.
Suppression
Player
Percentile
Rank
55.88
31 / 11975th
—
—
—
0.060
48 / 11960th
Puck management
Player
Percentile
Rank
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
Physical style
Player
Percentile
Rank
—
—
—
—
—
—
Context · not graded
Player value: 55.88 Peer range: 45.04 – 71.35 / 60
MeanMatthew Tkachuk
Lower (better)Higher
Player 55.88 · mean 59.37. Lower raw values are better.
On-ice attempts against per 60, including blocks.
Evidence coverage: high danger 34 of 80 games.
Discipline & puck management
Recorded season event counts · all situations
Penaltiesnet —
Taken —Drawn —
Puck eventsnet —
Giveaways —Takeaways —
Blocks
—
all situations
Hits
—
all situations
Both penalty counts cover 38 of 80 games with every drawn role recorded.
Strong 5.95 power-play points per 60 (9th of 57)
Strong 5.95 power-play points per 60 (9th of 57)
Power play
322:54 recorded ice time · peers need 100 minutes
Share of team PP
—
in games dressed
PP points
32
goals + assists
Unit xGF / 60
10.32
team without: —
Power play rates
Player
Percentile
Rank
5.95
9 / 5786th
—
—
—
19.51
2 / 5798th
2.88
4 / 5795th
10.32
9 / 5786th
—
—
—
Player value: 5.95 Peer range: 1.16 – 9.04 / 60
MeanMatthew Tkachuk
Lower Higher (better)
Player 5.95 · mean 4.46. Higher raw values rank higher.
Recorded goals plus assists per 60 in this scope; widened power-play and penalty-kill scopes.
Evidence coverage: goals 13 of 79 games · team time 38 of 80 games.
Penalty kill
24:16 recorded ice time · peers need 100 minutes
Share of team PK
—
in games dressed
SH points
1
goals + assists
Unit xGA / 60
3.52
team without: —
Penalty kill rates
Player
Percentile
Rank
3.52
—
—
—
—
39.56
—
—
—
—
0.98
—
No rank yet
Player value: 3.52 Peer range: 3.52 – 10.77 / 60
MeanMatthew Tkachuk
Lower (better)Higher
Player 3.52 · mean 8.04. Lower raw values are better. Fewer than 30 qualified peers.
Raw on-ice expected goals against per 60; the Season metrics sample.
Fewer than 30 qualified peers.
Evidence coverage: goals 12 of 52 games · high danger 12 of 52 games · team time 38 of 80 games.
18:38 TOI per game (12:59 at five-on-five · 4:02 PP · 0:18 PK)
18:38 TOI per game (12:59 at five-on-five · 4:02 PP · 0:18 PK)
Results vs expected
Five-on-five · what happened beside the chances created and allowed
Chances
Player
Percentile
Rank
3.38
5 / 11997th
2.61
71 / 11941st
56.4
17 / 11986th
Goals
Player
Percentile
Rank
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
Luck & variance
Player
Percentile
Rank
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
Context · not graded
Player value: 3.38 Peer range: 1.42 – 4.46 / 60
MeanMatthew Tkachuk
Lower Higher (better)
Player 3.38 · mean 2.57. Higher raw values rank higher.
Raw on-ice expected goals for per 60; the Season metrics sample.
5v5 goals
—
34 of 80 games
5v5 expected
58.5–45.2
xG for–against
EPV added
+4.82
80 attributed games · all situations
On ice vs off ice
Florida's share with Matthew Tkachuk on the ice against the same team without him.
Share
On ice and off ice
On-minus-off gap in percentage points
xGF%
On ice 56.4% · Off ice unavailable
—
CF%
On ice 57.6% · Off ice unavailable
—
GF%
On ice unavailable · Off ice unavailable
—
On iceOff ice
Scale 40–65% · marker at 50% · right column is the on-minus-off gap in points
Steady 10 points in the last 10 games (1.00 per game vs 1.10 this season)
Steady 10 points in the last 10 games (1.00 per game vs 1.10 this season)
0.95 points per game at home · 1.25 away
0.95 points per game at home · 1.25 away
80 games · most recent vs TOR, W 5–2: 0 G, 2 A
80 games · most recent vs TOR, W 5–2: 0 G, 2 A
Shot map
All 395 attempts
Matthew Tkachuk
395 attempts37.16 xG26 G
Goal26Shot on goal255Missed shot114Blocked shot0Larger dot = higher xG
Shooting by zone
Hover a row to light it up · click to pin
Zone
Att
G
xG
Goal rate
Exp.
Goals vs expected
G−xG
Right circle
41
3
1.8
7.3%
4.5%
+1.2
High slot
77
8
7.4
10.4%
9.6%
+0.6
Point
51
3
2.5
5.9%
4.9%
+0.5
Below goal line
9
0
0.3
0.0%
3.6%
−0.3
Left circle
24
0
0.6
0.0%
2.6%
−0.6
Outer slot
27
1
2.2
3.7%
8.0%
−1.2
Inner slot
166
11
22.4
6.6%
13.5%
−11.4
All zones
395
26
37.2
6.6%
9.4%
−11.2
Finishing evidence. Scoring 6.6% on chances vs 9.4% expected (−2.8 points), with the largest shortfall in the inner slot.
Sorted by goals minus expected goals. Goal rate is goals per unblocked attempt against the expected rate.
Shot profile
Context · not graded
On-net rate
71.1%
281 of 395 attempts on goal
Slot share
61.5%
243 from the inner or high slot
Average distance
24.6 ft
from the centre of the net
Rebound attempts / 60
1.25
31 this season · all situations
Shot types
395 attempts
Type
Share
Sh%
G−xG
Wrist
50.1%
7.3%
−7.2
Tip-in
17.5%
12.5%
−3.0
Snap
11.9%
14.6%
+2.2
Backhand
5.8%
5.6%
−0.7
Deflected
5.3%
10.0%
−1.6
Slap
4.8%
10.0%
−0.2
Other
4.6%
—
−0.5
Share is context, not a grade. Sh% counts shots on goal only.
High-danger chances
Model goal probability ≥ 0.20
Conversion20.7%−12.2 pts vs expected
Actual20.7%
Expected32.9%
Attempts
29
7.3% of these attempts
Goals
6
23% of all goals
Expected goals
9.5
0.33 xG per attempt
G−xG
−3.5
below model
Usage by situation
Ice time, share of team ice time, scoring and scoring rate, with where shifts start.
Scope
TOI/GP
Team share
G
A
P
P/60
Five-on-five
12:59
—
15
25
40
2.31
Power play
4:02
—
6
26
32
5.95
Penalty kill
0:18
—
1
0
1
2.47
Other
1:19
—
4
11
15
8.51
All situations
18:38
—
26
62
88
3.54
Where the 88 points come from · All situations
Goals26 · 1.05/60
Primary assists— · —/60
Secondary assists— · —/60
Zone starts — offensive of OZ + DZ
Offensive —Neutral —Defensive —
Shifts
— a game · — average
Zone starts: five-on-five · Shifts: all situations
11 NHL seasons: 682 games, 684 points
11 NHL seasons: 682 games, 684 points
Totals cover all situations; rates are five-on-five.
Elite90+Strong70–89Average30–69Weak10–29Poor<10Bar length is the peer percentile, so longer is always better · tick at the 50th
Player value: 2.31 Peer range: 0.44 – 2.85 / 60
MeanMatthew Tkachuk
Lower Higher (better)
Player 2.31 · mean 1.61. Higher raw values rank higher.
Recorded five-on-five goals plus assists per 60 minutes.
How to read these comparisons
Player values are recorded season results. Peer averages are arithmetic means of qualified players in the selected group; each row uses the same peers for its average and rank. Ranks use unrounded values, with tied players sharing a rank and the next rank skipped. Lower xG against ranks better. Bar colours are the five performance tiers; context rows are blue and not graded. Differences from the average describe the season, not isolated player impact.
Goals above expected is the raw goals-minus-xG rate, without the shrinkage used in the older finishing comparison. On-ice measures include teammates, opponents and deployment. These recorded metrics describe different quantities from the adjusted Season score components beside them.
Skaters need 20 appearances and 300 five-on-five minutes; quality and finishing also need 75 unblocked attempts. Early in a season these minimums scale down with games played so far. At least 30 peers must qualify. Playoff ranks are withheld. A reviewed axis whose own evidence fails is withheld and shown with its reason rather than ranked. These workload rules do not express statistical confidence.
Position uses the NHL listed primary position available now; it does not establish historical position or actual deployment. Broad groups are forwards, defence and goalies. This version uses the current model’s covered games only.
Season vs reference
Per game · all situations
Metric2023–24ReferenceDiff
0.330.51-0.18
0.780.87-0.10
1.101.38-0.28
3.504.08-0.58
Reference: 2022–23 · 79 games.
Each game against his own season
Points in each game, coloured by how good the game wasTrailing 10 games, per gameSeason 1.10
