Bands show position percentiles; axis labels show current rolling values.
Dashed outline: peer average in the fixed reference. Outside = above average; inside = below average. All axes point outward for stronger results.
Player value: 2.65 Peer range: 1.68 – 4.20 xGF/60
MeanNoah Ostlund
Lower Higher (better)
Player 2.65 · mean 2.54. Higher raw values rank higher.
Rolling profile against a fixed reference group
Fixed rolling-profile reference · 430 players. Values use the same history and smoothing as the radar.
History, sample sizes & calculation
Higher radar percentiles mean stronger recorded results against the fixed reference, including older seasons. These are separate from this season’s league percentile. Each player has a different amount of covered history. Weighted minutes and attempts give recent games more influence. “Prior” is the share contributed by a frozen league baseline: it is higher when a player has less evidence, and differs by metric because each uses its own smoothing strength. It is not a confidence score.
On-ice offense · xGF/60
559.5 weighted minutes · 26% prior
On-ice defense · xGA/60
559.5 weighted minutes · 42% prior
Chance generation · ixG/60
559.5 weighted minutes · 26% prior
Shot quality · ixG/attempt
67.6 weighted attempts · 27% prior
Finishing · goals above expected/60
67.6 weighted attempts · 37% prior
History through Oct 17, 2026. Recent games count more than older games. History carries across seasons and stays unchanged while inactive. On-ice results are shared; finishing describes results rather than established talent.
Recent scoring against his own season
Recent scoring against his own season
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Every metric name opens its definition; the full list lives in Metrics.
Traditional statistics cover all situations. Supporting five-on-five analyses use completed games, raw adjustment and exposure from xG model v4. The two samples can differ.
An em dash means unavailable, not zero. A partial season remains partial. Where a panel reports evidence coverage, its rates use only the covered games. History never substitutes a different model, and a missing appearance interrupts a rolling model window.
Shot maps use the same shot model as Game Center and show which model version scored recent shots beside the rink. Older seasons can use earlier model versions. High danger means a model scoring probability of at least 0.20 on an unblocked attempt; for goalies, medium danger is 0.08 to 0.20 and low is below 0.08.
Special-team buckets include the wider recorded man-advantage and man-down states, read from the player’s own team; for a goalie, penalty kill means facing a power play. Their ranks need 100 recorded minutes and at least 30 qualified peers; below 100 minutes, penalty-kill percentiles are provisional. Playoff values have no ranks or percentiles. Team share is player ice time divided by team ice time in that situation, over the games the player dressed. Zone starts describe faceoff-started five-on-five shifts and exclude on-the-fly starts.
Penalties count events, including one for a double minor; bench and served-by roles are excluded, and victimless infractions have no drawn role. EPV added sums changes in the probability that the possessing team scores next; it is not standings points or an isolated player grade. Rolling windows never cross seasons or season types, and a missed game is not a zero-performance appearance. Career rates use summed counts and exposure, never an average of season rates; a missing contributing season withholds its career metric, and Performance begins in 2023–24.
Five-on-five · time together from shift charts (131:27 of his 5v5 ice time) · xG share together and apart
Teammate
Pos
TOI together
xG share together
GF–GA
CF%
Him without
Teammate without
Zach Benson
L
115:45
63.5%
6–2
65.1%
30.6%
49.1%
Jack Quinn
R
106:15
60.2%
6–1
63.3%
53.6%
37.1%
Owen Power
D
54:16
57.5%
3–2
58.5%
60.4%
52.9%
Mattias Samuelsson
D
52:04
56.9%
1–1
61.4%
60.3%
49.9%
Rasmus Dahlin
D
38:20
63.7%
1–0
65.0%
57.7%
48.3%
Olen Zellweger
D
37:36
79.2%
2–0
65.2%
53.1%
52.8%
Louis Crevier
D
35:23
48.7%
3–2
53.0%
65.5%
38.9%
Zach Metsa
D
28:08
56.8%
1–0
61.5%
59.9%
29.7%
Josh Doan
R
15:47
47.8%
0–1
50.0%
60.5%
49.3%
Dennis Gilbert
D
9:03
71.0%
2–0
53.8%
58.7%
37.0%
Tage Thompson
C
8:10
93.8%
0–0
80.0%
58.0%
48.6%
Peyton Krebs
C
7:29
28.0%
0–0
36.8%
61.0%
49.7%
Without columns are five-on-five xG share apart: him on the ice without that teammate, and the teammate without him (with this club). Bars are centred on an even 50%.
No 2026–27 playoff games have been played yet.
Every playoff run
All covered playoff runs (2015–16 onward). Traditional totals are all situations; analytical columns use matching five-on-five coverage.
Expected goals against while the player is on the ice (fewer is better)
Chance creation
Expected goals from the player’s own shots
Finishing
Goals minus expected goals on the player’s own shots
Assisting
Primary assists plus half of secondary assists
Each is measured against expectation, per 60 rated minutes: plus is above, minus below.
How this is calculated
Score breakdown
Component
Weight
Scaled
Contribution
Offense
25%
−0.045
−0.011
Defense
25%
0.283
+0.071
Chance creation
20%
0.068
+0.014
Finishing
10%
−0.152
−0.015
Assisting
20%
0.040
+0.008
Performance rate
0.066
Per 60 rated minutes, over the scored appearances. Each component is scaled separately, then weighted; the contributions add to the performance rate at full precision, so rounded figures may differ.
Scoring
Season grade is the qualified peer percentile on the same letter bands as Game Grade — A+ ≥88, A ≥78, A− ≥68, B+ ≥58, B ≥50, B− ≥42, C+ ≥35, C ≥28, C− ≥22, D ≥15, F below 15 — and needs qualification plus at least 30 eligible peers. The letter describes this season’s performance, not permanent ability.
Comparisons
Rank and component percentiles compare this season’s qualified forwards on unrounded rates over every checked appearance; Game Grade compares one appearance with frozen historical games.
Component percentiles are never averaged into the score. Recent history is optional, from up to three completed prior seasons; small samples are provisional.
Coverage
Qualification: 4 covered appearances, 52.1 rated minutes, and 90% appearance and workload coverage. Minimums advance with league progress; valid low-sample results stay visible.
Rated minutes exclude play with a goalie pulled: 1.3 min excluded; official TOI 169.9 min.
Coverage: complete. Updated .
Method
Five weighted components add to the performance rate. Five-on-five offense and defense account for recorded teammates, opponents and game state, so shared on-ice results are not isolated individual ability. Finishing is scored against the shot model’s historical-shooter expectation and assisting counts primary assists plus half of secondary assists; both use the strength baseline, chance creation its positional baseline.
Legacy rating
Legacy season score: 71.7 / 100. The fixed exposure baseline is 50; this is separate from the season peer grade.
59.1%17th of 82
Strong 59.1% on-ice expected goal share at five-on-five (17th of 82)
Strong 59.1% on-ice expected goal share at five-on-five (17th of 82)
Strong 2.06 on-ice expected goals against per 60 (24th of 82)
Strong 2.06 on-ice expected goals against per 60 (24th of 82)
Defensive metrics
Five-on-five on-ice suppression; individual events in all situations.
Suppression
Player
Percentile
Rank
40.96
3 / 8298th
1.88
47 / 5515th
0.072
80 / 822nd
Puck management
Player
Percentile
Rank
0.00
T-75 / 829th
3.53
53 / 8236th
0.00
T-35 / 8258th
Physical style
Player
Percentile
Rank
0.71
79 / 824th
0.35
77 / 826th
Context · not graded
Player value: 40.96 Peer range: 34.49 – 78.21 / 60
MeanNoah Ostlund
Lower (better)Higher
Player 40.96 · mean 56.08. Lower raw values are better.
On-ice attempts against per 60, including blocks.
Discipline & puck management
Recorded season event counts · all situations
Penaltiesnet 0
Taken 2Drawn 2
Puck eventsnet -10
Giveaways 10Takeaways 0
Blocks
2
all situations
Hits
1
all situations
1.99 power-play points per 60
1.99 power-play points per 60
Power play
30:10 recorded ice time · peers need 100 minutes
Share of team PP
60.4%
in games dressed
PP points
1
goals + assists
Unit xGF / 60
6.47
team without: 5.23
Power play rates
Player
Percentile
Rank
1.99
—
1.99
—
11.93
—
1.70
—
6.47
—
5.97
—
No rank yet
Player value: 1.99 Peer distribution not published for this axis.
Noah Ostlund
Lower Higher (better)
Player 1.99 · mean —. Higher raw values rank higher. Needs 100 minutes in this special-teams scope.
Recorded goals plus assists per 60 in this scope; widened power-play and penalty-kill scopes.
Needs 100 minutes in this special-teams scope.
Penalty kill
5:22 recorded ice time · peers need 100 minutes
Share of team PK
13.0%
in games dressed
SH points
0
goals + assists
Unit xGA / 60
7.80
team without: 9.47
Penalty kill rates
Player
Percentile
Rank
7.80
—
22.36
—
78.26
—
11.18
—
1.53
—
No rank yet
Player value: 7.80 Peer distribution not published for this axis.
Noah Ostlund
Lower (better)Higher
Player 7.80 · mean —. Lower raw values are better. Fewer than 30 qualified peers.
Raw on-ice expected goals against per 60; the Season metrics sample.
Fewer than 30 qualified peers.
18:53 TOI per game (14:10 at five-on-five · 3:21 PP · 0:36 PK)
18:53 TOI per game (14:10 at five-on-five · 3:21 PP · 0:36 PK)
Strong 0.92 individual expected goals per 60 (14th of 82)
Strong 0.92 individual expected goals per 60 (14th of 82)
Results vs expected
Five-on-five · what happened beside the chances created and allowed
Chances
Player
Percentile
Rank
2.97
20 / 8277th
2.06
24 / 8272nd
59.1
17 / 8280th
Goals
Player
Percentile
Rank
3.30
16 / 4566th
1.41
10 / 4580th
70.0
T-12 / 4575th
Luck & variance
Player
Percentile
Rank
12.7
14 / 4570th
91.9
T-18 / 4561st
104.62
15 / 4568th
Context · not graded
Player value: 2.97 Peer range: 1.48 – 3.84 / 60
MeanNoah Ostlund
Lower Higher (better)
Player 2.97 · mean 2.54. Higher raw values rank higher.
Raw on-ice expected goals for per 60; the Season metrics sample.
5v5 goals
7–3
for–against
5v5 expected
6.3–4.4
xG for–against
EPV added
—
Attribution unavailable
On ice vs off ice
Buffalo's share with Noah Ostlund on the ice against the same team without him.
Share
On ice and off ice
On-minus-off gap in percentage points
xGF%
On ice 59.1%; off ice 46.9%.
46.959.1
+12.2
CF%
On ice 61.0%; off ice 50.6%.
50.661.0
+10.3
GF%
On ice 70.0%; off ice 41.4%.
41.470.0
+28.6
On iceOff ice
Scale 40–70% · marker at 50% · right column is the on-minus-off gap in points
6 points in the last 9 games (0.67 per game vs 0.67 this season)
6 points in the last 9 games (0.67 per game vs 0.67 this season)
0.40 points per game at home · 1.00 away
0.40 points per game at home · 1.00 away
9 games · most recent at MTL, L 3–4: 0 G, 0 A
9 games · most recent at MTL, L 3–4: 0 G, 0 A
Noah Ostlund
31 attempts2.96 xG2 G
Goal2Shot on goal18Missed shot11Blocked shot0Larger dot = higher xG
Shooting by zone
Zone
Att
G
xG
Goal rate / exp.
G−xG
Inner slot
9
2
1.4
22.2% / 15.7%
+0.6
Left circle
2
0
0.0
0.0% / 1.5%
0.0
Right circle
3
0
0.1
0.0% / 2.6%
−0.1
Outer slot
1
0
0.1
0.0% / 8.9%
−0.1
Point
8
0
0.3
0.0% / 4.3%
−0.3
High slot
8
0
1.0
0.0% / 12.5%
−1.0
All zones
31
2
3.0
6.5% / 9.5%
−1.0
Sorted by goals minus expected goals. Goal rate is goals per unblocked attempt against the expected rate. Hover a row to light up those attempts on the rink.
Finishing evidence. Scoring 6.5% on chances vs 9.5% expected (−3.1 points), with the largest shortfall in the high slot.
Shot types31 attempts
Type
Share
Sh%
G−xG
Snap
41.9%
0.0%
−1.4
Wrist
35.5%
12.5%
−0.2
Slap
12.9%
0.0%
−0.2
Backhand
3.2%
0.0%
0.0
Deflected
3.2%
100.0%
+0.8
Tip-in
3.2%
—
−0.1
Share is context, not a grade. Sh% counts shots on goal only.
High-danger chancesmodel probability ≥ 0.20
Attempts9.7% of the selected attempts
3
Goals
0
Expected goals
0.8
Conversion
0.0%26.6% expected
Shot profilecontext · not graded
On-net rate20 of 31 attempts on goal
64.5%
Slot share17 of 31 from the inner or high slot
54.8%
Average distancefrom the centre of the net
28.9 ft
Rebound attempts / 602 this season · all situations
0.71
Usage by situation
Ice time, share of team ice time, scoring and scoring rate, with where shifts start.
Scope
TOI/GP
Team share
G
A
P
P/60
Five-on-five
14:10
29.3%
1
2
3
1.41
Power play
3:21
60.4%
1
0
1
1.99
Penalty kill
0:36
13.0%
0
0
0
0.00
Other
0:46
—
0
2
2
17.35
All situations
18:53
30.7%
2
4
6
2.12
Where the 6 points come from · All situations
Goals2 · 0.71/60
Primary assists2 · 0.71/60
Secondary assists2 · 0.71/60
33.3% of points are secondary assists. Peer average 22.4%. Primary points per 60 (1.41).
Zone starts 85.2% offensive of OZ + DZ · 98th percentile
Offensive 46.0%Neutral 46.0%Defensive 8.0%
Shifts
22.8 a game · 0:50 average
Zone starts: five-on-five · Shifts: all situations
Faceoffs
All situations · zones are read from his side of the draw · values only; no peer ranks yet
Win %
35.2%
31 of 88 draws
Draws per game
9.78
9 games
Offensive zone
27.9%
43 draws
Defensive zone
42.9%
7 draws
Power play
0.0%
4 draws
Strong chance creation — he just isn't converting his looks, sitting at 0.45 goals below expected per 60 (62nd of 77).
3 NHL seasons: 77 games, 33 points
3 NHL seasons: 77 games, 33 points
Totals cover all situations; rates are five-on-five.
Elite90+Strong70–89Average30–69Weak10–29Poor<10Bar length is the peer percentile, so longer is always better · tick at the 50th
Player value: 1.41 Peer range: 0.00 – 6.24 / 60
MeanNoah Ostlund
Lower Higher (better)
Player 1.41 · mean 1.91. Higher raw values rank higher.
Recorded five-on-five goals plus assists per 60 minutes.
How to read these comparisons
Player values are recorded season results. Peer averages are arithmetic means of qualified players in the selected group; each row uses the same peers for its average and rank. Ranks use unrounded values, with tied players sharing a rank and the next rank skipped. Lower xG against ranks better. Bar colours are the five performance tiers; context rows are blue and not graded. Differences from the average describe the season, not isolated player impact.
Goals above expected is the raw goals-minus-xG rate, without the shrinkage used in the older finishing comparison. On-ice measures include teammates, opponents and deployment. These recorded metrics describe different quantities from the adjusted Season score components beside them.
Skaters need 20 appearances and 300 five-on-five minutes; quality and finishing also need 75 unblocked attempts. Early in a season these minimums scale down with games played so far. At least 30 peers must qualify. Playoff ranks are withheld. A reviewed axis whose own evidence fails is withheld and shown with its reason rather than ranked. These workload rules do not express statistical confidence.
Position uses the NHL listed primary position available now; it does not establish historical position or actual deployment. Broad groups are forwards, defence and goalies. This version uses the current model’s covered games only.
Season vs reference
Per game · all situations
Metric2026–27ReferenceDiff
0.220.18+0.04
0.440.27+0.18
0.670.45+0.22
2.221.00+1.22
Reference: 2025–26 · 60 games.
Each game against his own season
Points in each game, coloured by how good the game wasTrailing 10 games, per gameSeason 0.67
