Buffalo Sabres#92Goalie Catches left
Age 26 · 6′1″ · 194 lb · Whycocomagh, NS, CAN
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Every metric name opens its definition; the full list lives in Metrics.
Traditional statistics cover all situations. Supporting five-on-five analyses use completed games, raw adjustment and exposure from xG model v4. The two samples can differ.
An em dash means unavailable, not zero. A partial season remains partial. Where a panel reports evidence coverage, its rates use only the covered games. History never substitutes a different model, and a missing appearance interrupts a rolling model window.
Shot maps use the same shot model as Game Center and show which model version scored recent shots beside the rink. Older seasons can use earlier model versions. High danger means a model scoring probability of at least 0.20 on an unblocked attempt; for goalies, medium danger is 0.08 to 0.20 and low is below 0.08.
Special-team buckets include the wider recorded man-advantage and man-down states, read from the player’s own team; for a goalie, penalty kill means facing a power play. Their ranks need 100 recorded minutes and at least 30 qualified peers; below 100 minutes, penalty-kill percentiles are provisional. Playoff values have no ranks or percentiles. Team share is player ice time divided by team ice time in that situation, over the games the player dressed. Zone starts describe faceoff-started five-on-five shifts and exclude on-the-fly starts.
Penalties count events, including one for a double minor; bench and served-by roles are excluded, and victimless infractions have no drawn role. EPV added sums changes in the probability that the possessing team scores next; it is not standings points or an isolated player grade. Rolling windows never cross seasons or season types, and a missed game is not a zero-performance appearance. Career rates use summed counts and exposure, never an average of season rates; a missing contributing season withholds its career metric, and Performance begins in 2023–24.
Explore the full methodology →EPV attribution: 0.10 across 8 attributed games. This is summed change in the probability that the possessing team scores next—not standings points.
Ice time and shot workload by situation.
| Scope | TOI/GP | SA | GA | SV% | xGA | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-on-five | 45:45 | 357 | 31 | .913 | 32.3 | +1.3 |
| Power play | 5:16 | 12 | 1 | .917 | 0.6 | −0.4 |
| Penalty kill | 3:50 | 62 | 8 | .871 | 8.3 | +0.3 |
| Other | 2:07 | 24 | 4 | .833 | 3.4 | — |
| All situations | 56:58 | 455 | 44 | .903 | 44.6 | +0.6 |
Ice time is per game played; minutes outside the three recorded scopes appear as Other. 16 all-situations games.
| Zone | Att | GA | xGA | Goal rate / exp. | Prevented |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High slot | 167 | 14 | 16.4 | 8.4% / 9.8% | +2.4 |
| Left circle | 53 | 0 | 1.5 | 0.0% / 2.7% | +1.5 |
| Point | 213 | 4 | 4.5 | 1.9% / 2.1% | +0.5 |
| Right circle | 41 | 1 | 1.2 | 2.4% / 3.0% | +0.2 |
| Below goal line | 8 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.0% / 2.7% | +0.2 |
| Outer slot | 34 | 6 | 3.0 | 17.6% / 8.7% | −3.0 |
| Inner slot | 157 | 24 | 20.3 | 15.3% / 13.0% | −3.7 |
| All zones | 673 | 49 | 47.1 | 7.3% / 7.0% | −1.9 |
Sorted by goals prevented (xG against minus goals against). Goal rate is goals per unblocked attempt against the expected rate. Hover a row to light up those attempts on the rink.
Stopping evidence. Allowed a goal on 7.3% of attempts faced against 7.0% expected, tracking the model across 7 zones.
| Type | Share | SV% | Prevented |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wrist | 45.6% | .916 | +1.2 |
| Snap | 26.2% | .849 | −5.0 |
| Slap | 11.1% | .896 | −1.2 |
| Tip-in | 8.0% | .893 | +1.5 |
| Backhand | 7.0% | .912 | +1.2 |
| Deflected | 1.2% | 1.000 | +0.8 |
| Other | 0.9% | — | −0.5 |
Share is context, not a grade. SV% counts shots on goal only.
Observed history, with model gaps kept visible. Select a metric to follow its progression.
16 recorded games · 16 compatible five-on-five games · BUF
Traditional statistics use all situations. Analytical values require the same model and five-on-five scope; missing history is not estimated from older caches.
How Colten Ellis compares with qualified positional peers at five-on-five.
The full radar is withheld until all five measures qualify. Available measures are shown individually.
Among G peers · 57 qualified players · Descriptive profile · performance, style and context
Player value: —
Peer range: -0.89 – 1.32 goals saved per 100 SOG
Player — · mean —. Higher raw values rank higher. Needs 500 verified five-on-five shots on goal
Adjusted goals saved above expected per 100 verified five-on-five shots on goal. Higher is better.
Each axis ranks the player against qualified peers. The dashed reference is the percentile of their arithmetic mean, which need not be the 50th percentile. Ties share a midrank.
This shape combines performance, playing style and the difficulty and volume of shots faced. Farther from the center means more of that named quantity. A larger shape is not an overall grade. Post-save stoppages are a recorded event proxy, not goalie-attributed freezes.
Goalies need 15 covered appearances, 500 verified five-on-five shots on goal and 90% shot and appearance coverage. Rebound suppression needs 600 eligible saves across 15 appearances. Post-save stoppages need 600 observable saves across 15 appearances, at least 90% horizon coverage and 98% reason coverage. At least 30 goalies must qualify per axis. Playoff ranks are withheld. A reviewed axis whose own evidence fails is withheld and shown with its reason rather than ranked. These workload rules do not express statistical confidence.
Position uses the NHL listed primary position available now; it does not establish historical position or actual deployment. Broad groups are forwards, defence and goalies. This version uses the current model’s covered games only.
All situations
First covered season: no earlier personal reference is available.
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Stopping and rebound results across recent NHL seasons, compared with a fixed goalie reference. Includes previous seasons; separate from the selected-season standing above.
Through Oct 12, 2026. Radar and percentiles use the same checked history; season ranking qualification does not hide this profile.
Bands show position percentiles; axis labels show current rolling values.
Dashed outline: peer average in the fixed reference. Outside = above average; inside = below average. All axes point outward for stronger results.
Player value: 0.59
Peer range: -0.60 – 1.49 residual per 100
Player 0.59 · mean 0.49. Higher raw values rank higher.
Rolling profile against a fixed reference group
Fixed rolling-profile reference · 52 players. Values use the same history and smoothing as the radar.
Higher radar percentiles mean stronger recorded results against the fixed reference, including older seasons. These are separate from this season’s league percentile. Each player has a different amount of covered history. Weighted minutes and attempts give recent games more influence. “Prior” is the share contributed by a frozen league baseline: it is higher when a player has less evidence, and differs by metric because each uses its own smoothing strength. It is not a confidence score.
Verified 5v5 stopping and rebound profile. High-danger stopping is withheld; these overlapping axes are not added together.
History through Oct 12, 2026. Recent games count more than older games. History carries across seasons and stays unchanged while inactive.
Each start against his own season
Tiles cover the last 10 games.
Every appearance · rest counts days off before the game; the playoff field is the standings' top three per division plus two wild cards
| Split | GP | W–L–OTL | SA | SV% | 5v5 GSAx | Goal support / GP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venue | ||||||
| Home | 7 | 4–2–1 | 218 | .917 | +1.1 | 3.86 |
| Away | 9 | 5–3–1 | 237 | .890 | +0.2 | 3.67 |
| Rest | ||||||
| 1 day of rest | 2 | 1–1–0 | 68 | .897 | −3.1 | 3.50 |
| 2+ days of rest | 13 | 7–4–2 | 356 | .902 | +4.1 | 3.77 |
| Opponent | ||||||
| vs Eastern | 10 | 6–3–1 | 293 | .904 | +5.7 | 4.10 |
| vs Western | 6 | 3–2–1 | 162 | .901 | −4.4 | 3.17 |
| vs playoff teams | 8 | 4–2–2 | 220 | .900 | +1.9 | 3.38 |
| vs non-playoff teams | 8 | 5–3–0 | 235 | .906 | −0.6 | 4.13 |
| Recent | ||||||
| Last 10 | 10 | 5–3–2 | 268 | .907 | +6.5 | 3.90 |
| Split | SA | GA | SV% | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Period | ||||
| 1st period | 128 | 14 | .891 | −1.9 |
| 2nd period | 154 | 15 | .903 | −0.4 |
| 3rd period | 170 | 14 | .918 | +3.1 |
| Overtime | 3 | 1 | .667 | −0.2 |
| Score state · his team | ||||
| Leading | 164 | 14 | .915 | +0.4 |
| Tied | 151 | 17 | .887 | −1.3 |
| Trailing | 140 | 13 | .907 | +1.5 |
From play-by-play; shootouts excluded. Shots on goal he faced; GSAx is expected goals on attempts faced minus goals.
Five-on-five, per 60 of his ice time · context, not a grade of the goalie
His 14 starts · team goals while the game was his
Official totals; expected-goal columns are five-on-five.
| Opponent | Result | Decision | SA | GA | SV | Save % | 5v5 xGA | 5v5 GSAx | Game | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15 | vs DAL | OTL 3–4 SO | OTL | 65:00 | 28 | 3 | 25 | 2.39 | +0.4 | View → | |
| Apr 9 | vs CBJ | W 5–0 | W | 60:00 | 37 | 0 | 37 | 2.17 | +2.2 | View → | |
| Apr 4 | @ WSH | L 2–6 | — | 54:08 | 23 | 3 | 20 | 1.53 | +0.5 | View → | |
| Feb 3 | @ TBL | OTL 3–4 OT | OTL | 64:24 | 35 | 4 | 31 | 2.16 | +1.2 | View → | |
| Jan 27 | @ TOR | W 7–4 | W | 47:46 | 18 | 2 | 16 | 1.88 | −0.1 | View → | |
| Jan 15 | vs MTL | W 5–3 | W | 59:47 | 23 | 3 | 20 | 1.85 | +0.8 | View → | |
| Jan 12 | vs FLA | L 3–4 | L | 57:28 | 31 | 3 | 28 | 2.48 | +0.5 | View → | |
| Jan 8 | @ NYR | W 5–2 | W | 60:00 | 32 | 2 | 30 | 1.89 | −0.1 | View → | |
| Dec 9 | @ EDM | W 4–3 OT | — | 19:01 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 0.50 | +0.5 | View → | |
| Dec 3 | @ PHI | L 2–5 | L | 60:00 | 35 | 5 | 30 | 3.64 | +0.6 | View → | |
| 10 games | — | 5–3–2 | 4–2–2 | 54:45 avg | 268 | 25 | 243 | 20.5 | +6.5 | — |
+0.58 goals saved above expected per 100 five-on-five shots.
Not qualified · 2025–26 goalies
Needs 301.0 more verified 5v5 shots.
| Danger | Shots | Share | Saves | Goals against | Save % | GSAx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High danger | 21 | 6% | 15 | 6 | .714 | 0.0 |
| Medium danger | 88 | 25% | 71 | 17 | .807 | −2.1 |
| Low danger | 248 | 69% | 240 | 8 | .968 | +3.4 |
Season grade is the qualified peer percentile on the same letter bands as Game Grade — A+ ≥88, A ≥78, A− ≥68, B+ ≥58, B ≥50, B− ≥42, C+ ≥35, C ≥28, C− ≥22, D ≥15, F below 15 — and needs qualification plus at least 30 eligible peers. The letter describes this season’s performance, not permanent ability.
Rank and component percentiles compare this season’s qualified goalies on unrounded rates over every checked appearance; Game Grade compares one appearance with frozen historical games.
Qualification: 13 covered appearances, 656.0 verified 5v5 shots, and 90% appearance and workload coverage. Minimums advance with league progress; valid low-sample results stay visible.
Zero-shot relief appearances do not count toward qualification until eligible five-on-five ice time is verified.
Coverage: complete. Updated .
Stopping uses the independent verified five-on-five shot-on-goal model. Danger and rebound measures have separate gates and are not added to this score.
2.05 total goals saved above expected.
facing a power play · ranked against every goalie with 100+ minutes in the situation
his team on the power play · ranked against every goalie with 100+ minutes in the situation
