Erik Cernak

Tampa Bay Lightning#81Defenseman Shoots right

Age 29 · 6′4″ · 232 lb · Kosice, SVK

Season grade: Withheld; Incomplete data; Performance / 60−0.1532/76 GP

Games76T-281st in NHL

Goals30.04/GP▲0.01T-532nd in NHL

Assists180.24/GP▲0.08T-284th in NHL

Points210.28/GP▲0.09T-379th in NHL…

5v5 xG share—…

Avg TOI18:16223rd in NHL…

Career awards

Not qualified · 2024–25 defensemen

Playing-time minimum met. Rank withheld because the app’s scoring data are incomplete. The app has checked scoring results for 32 of 37 appearances (86.5%); season standings require at least 90%. Scoring data cover less than 90% of recorded workload or could not be verified.

Percentiles appear once this player qualifies for season standings. The score breakdown is under How this is calculated.

How this is calculated

Score breakdown

Component	Weight	Scaled	Contribution
Offense	25%	−0.390	−0.098
Defense	25%	0.154	+0.038
Chance creation	20%	−0.472	−0.094
Finishing	10%	−0.079	−0.008
Assisting	20%	0.082	+0.016
Performance rate			−0.145

Per 60 rated minutes, over the scored appearances. Each component is scaled separately, then weighted; the contributions add to the performance rate at full precision, so rounded figures may differ.

Scoring

Season grade is the qualified peer percentile on the same letter bands as Game Grade — A+ ≥88, A ≥78, A− ≥68, B+ ≥58, B ≥50, B− ≥42, C+ ≥35, C ≥28, C− ≥22, D ≥15, F below 15 — and needs qualification plus at least 30 eligible peers. The letter describes this season’s performance, not permanent ability.

Comparisons

Rank and component percentiles compare this season’s qualified defensemen on unrounded rates over every checked appearance; Game Grade compares one appearance with frozen historical games.

Component percentiles are never averaged into the score. Recent history is optional, from up to three completed prior seasons; small samples are provisional.

Coverage

Qualification: 16 covered appearances, 312.8 rated minutes, and 90% appearance and workload coverage. Minimums advance with league progress; valid low-sample results stay visible.

Rated minutes exclude play with a goalie pulled: 4.2 min excluded; official TOI 552.9 min.

Coverage: partial. Updated Oct 17, 2026.

Method

Five weighted components add to the performance rate. Five-on-five offense and defense account for recorded teammates, opponents and game state, so shared on-ice results are not isolated individual ability. Finishing is scored against the shot model’s historical-shooter expectation and assisting counts primary assists plus half of secondary assists; both use the strength baseline, chance creation its positional baseline.

Legacy rating

Legacy season score: 18.6 / 100. The fixed exposure baseline is 50; this is separate from the season peer grade.

Loading season standing and profile…

Season metrics

2024–25 · five-on-five · vs 41 positional peers

Player	Percentile	Rank
—	—	—
—	—	—
—	—	—

Player	Percentile	Rank
—	—	—
—	—	—
—	—	—
0.024		—
—	—	—

Elite90+Strong70–89Average30–69Weak10–29Poor<10No rank yetBar length is the peer percentile, so longer is always better · tick at the 50th

How to read these comparisons

Player values are recorded season results. Peer averages are arithmetic means of qualified players in the selected group; each row uses the same peers for its average and rank. Ranks use unrounded values, with tied players sharing a rank and the next rank skipped. Lower xG against ranks better. Bar colours are the five performance tiers; context rows are blue and not graded. Differences from the average describe the season, not isolated player impact.

Goals above expected is the raw goals-minus-xG rate, without the shrinkage used in the older finishing comparison. On-ice measures include teammates, opponents and deployment. These recorded metrics describe different quantities from the adjusted Season score components beside them.

Skaters need 20 appearances and 300 five-on-five minutes; quality and finishing also need 75 unblocked attempts. Early in a season these minimums scale down with games played so far. At least 30 peers must qualify. Playoff ranks are withheld. A reviewed axis whose own evidence fails is withheld and shown with its reason rather than ranked. These workload rules do not express statistical confidence.

Position uses the NHL listed primary position available now; it does not establish historical position or actual deployment. Broad groups are forwards, defence and goalies. This version uses the current model’s covered games only.

Season vs reference

Reference

Per game · all situations

Metric2024–25ReferenceDiff

0.040.03+0.01

0.240.16+0.08

0.280.19+0.09

0.840.77+0.07

Reference: 2023–24 · 69 games.

Season comparisons

Loading peer comparisons and model evidence…

Optional recent-history profile

Rolling Radar

Recent NHL history, carried across seasons. The radar compares this broader profile with a fixed position-group reference.

Rolling profile is currently unavailable.

Rolling Radar

Loading recent-history profile…

Results vs expected

Five-on-five · what happened beside the chances created and allowed

Player	Percentile	Rank
—	—	—
—	—	—
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Player	Percentile	Rank
—	—	—
—	—	—
—	—	—

Player	Percentile	Rank
—	—	—
—	—	—
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Context · not graded

5v5 goals: —
5v5 expected: —
EPV added: +2.32

On ice vs off ice

Tampa Bay's share with Erik Cernak on the ice against the same team without him.

Share	On ice and off ice	On-minus-off gap in percentage points
xGF%	On ice unavailable · Off ice unavailable	—
CF%	On ice unavailable · Off ice unavailable	—
GF%	On ice unavailable · Off ice unavailable	—

On iceOff ice

Scale 40–65% · marker at 50% · right column is the on-minus-off gap in points

Loading model evidence…

Defensive metrics

Five-on-five on-ice suppression; individual events in all situations.

Player	Percentile	Rank
—	—	—
—	—	—
—	—	—

Player	Percentile	Rank
—	—	—
—	—	—
—	—	—

Physical style	Player	Percentile	Rank
	—	—	—
	—	—	—

Context · not graded

Evidence coverage: high danger 37 of 73 games.

Discipline & puck management

Recorded season event counts · all situations

Penaltiesnet —

Taken —Drawn —

Puck eventsnet —

Giveaways —Takeaways —

Blocks: —
Hits: —

Both penalty counts cover 39 of 76 games with every drawn role recorded.

Loading defensive evidence…

SituationChancesViewShot type

Shot map

All 112 attempts

Goal3Shot on goal61Missed shot48Blocked shot0Larger dot = higher xG

Shooting by zone

Hover a row to light it up · click to pin

Zone	Att	G	xG	Goal rate	Exp.	G−xG
Left circle	6	1	0.5	16.7%	8.8%	+0.5
High slot	12	1	0.9	8.3%	7.6%	+0.1
Below goal line	1	0	0.0	0.0%	4.8%	0.0
Outer slot	2	0	0.1	0.0%	6.5%	−0.1
Right circle	10	0	0.1	0.0%	1.3%	−0.1
Inner slot	3	0	0.3	0.0%	10.9%	−0.3
Point	78	1	1.5	1.3%	1.9%	−0.5
All zones	112	3	3.6	2.7%	3.2%	−0.6

Finishing evidence. Scoring 2.7% on chances vs 3.2% expected (−0.5 points), with the largest shortfall in the point.

Sorted by goals minus expected goals. Goal rate is goals per unblocked attempt against the expected rate.

Shot profile

Context · not graded

On-net rate: 57.1%
Slot share: 13.4%
Average distance: 52.1 ft
Rebound attempts / 60: 0.09

Shot types

112 attempts

Type	Share	Sh%	G−xG
Wrist	58.9%	5.0%	0.0
Slap	24.1%	6.3%	−0.1
Snap	15.2%	0.0%	−0.4
Backhand	1.8%	0.0%	−0.1

Share is context, not a grade. Sh% counts shots on goal only.

High-danger chances

Model goal probability ≥ 0.20

Conversion50.0%+4.4 pts vs expected

Actual50.0%

Expected45.6%

Attempts: 2
Goals: 1
Expected goals: 0.9
G−xG: +0.1

Shot locations

Loading canonical shot events…

Usage by situation

Ice time, share of team ice time, scoring and scoring rate, with where shifts start.

Scope	TOI/GP	Team share	G	A	P	P/60
Five-on-five	—	—	2	10	12	—
Power play	—	—	0	0	0	—
Penalty kill	—	—	0	2	2	—
Other	—	—	1	6	7	—
All situations	18:16	—	3	18	21	0.91

Where the 21 points come from · All situations

Goals3 · 0.13/60
Primary assists— · —/60
Secondary assists— · —/60

Zone starts — offensive of OZ + DZ

Offensive —Neutral —Defensive —

Shifts

— a game · — average

Zone starts: five-on-five · Shifts: all situations

Usage by situation

Loading usage…

Power play

— recorded ice time · peers need 100 minutes

Share of team PP: —
PP points: 0
Unit xGF / 60: —

Player	Percentile	Rank
—	—	—
—	—	—
—	—	—
—	—	—
—	—	—
—	—	—

Evidence coverage: goals 5 of 22 games · team time 39 of 76 games.

Penalty kill

— recorded ice time · peers need 100 minutes

Share of team PK: —
SH points: 2
Unit xGA / 60: —

Player	Percentile	Rank
—	—	—
—	—	—
—	—	—
—	—	—
—	—	—

Evidence coverage: goals 20 of 67 games · high danger 20 of 67 games · team time 39 of 76 games.

Loading special teams…

Split	GP	G	A	P	P/GP	5v5 xG share	Team record
Venue
Home	40	2	8	10	0.25	56.1%	28–8–4
Away	36	1	10	11	0.31	48.9%	16–16–4
Rest
Back-to-back	9	0	1	1	0.11	53.0%	5–4–0
1 day of rest	49	3	12	15	0.31	51.9%	26–15–8
2+ days of rest	17	0	4	4	0.24	57.2%	12–5–0
Opponent
vs Eastern	47	2	12	14	0.30	51.3%	26–13–8
vs Western	29	1	6	7	0.24	54.2%	18–11–0
vs playoff teams	37	1	7	8	0.22	54.8%	19–16–2
vs non-playoff teams	39	2	11	13	0.33	50.3%	25–8–6
Recent
Last 10	10	0	1	1	0.10	52.4%	5–2–3

Split	G	A	P	5v5 xG share	5v5 CF%	5v5 GF–GA
Period
1st period	1	5	6	—	—	—
2nd period	0	6	6	—	—	—
3rd period	2	7	9	—	—	—
Overtime	0	0	0	—	—	—
Score state · 5v5 on ice
Leading	—	—	—	50.2%	44.8%	18–15
Tied	—	—	—	51.5%	47.6%	17–14
Trailing	—	—	—	60.2%	56.7%	20–9

Teammate	Pos	TOI together	xG share together	GF–GA	CF%	Him without	Teammate without
Ryan McDonagh	D	975:42	52.9%	51–36	48.1%	51.9%	55.9%
Brandon Hagel	L	508:22	52.2%	26–17	49.7%	53.3%	62.0%
Anthony Cirelli	C	490:43	52.2%	25–16	50.6%	53.3%	63.3%
Nick Paul	L	304:21	55.1%	14–10	48.8%	52.1%	49.2%
Nikita Kucherov	R	298:51	54.2%	12–8	51.2%	52.1%	56.2%
Jake Guentzel	C	274:47	47.5%	13–8	44.2%	54.7%	55.6%
Brayden Point	C	235:38	47.5%	11–8	42.9%	54.5%	52.8%
Zemgus Girgensons	C	220:31	50.5%	10–10	48.5%	53.2%	51.0%
Conor Geekie	C	187:21	52.0%	12–5	47.9%	53.0%	45.7%
Mitchell Chaffee	R	167:36	49.3%	12–7	45.8%	53.4%	40.8%
Luke Glendening	C	164:21	49.7%	5–7	40.2%	53.2%	45.7%
Gage Goncalves	C	148:02	64.8%	9–3	53.3%	51.3%	46.5%

	Opponent	Result		G		PPP	+/−	SOG		5v5 on-ice xG share	Game
Apr 30	vs FLA	L 3–6	17:07	0	0	0	-1	3	0.27	73.0%	View →
Apr 28	@ FLA	L 2–4	18:32	1	1	0	0	3	0.05	43.5%	View →
Apr 26	@ FLA	W 5–1	17:07	0	0	0	3	2	0.01	38.0%	View →
Apr 24	vs FLA	L 0–2	19:44	0	0	0	-1	4	0.06	48.8%	View →
Apr 22	vs FLA	L 2–6	17:08	0	0	—	0	2	0.03	55.5%	View →
Filtered 5	—	1–4	17:56 avg	1	1	—	1	14	0.42	50.1%	—

Season	GP	G	A	P	SOG	P/GP	5v5 ixG/60	5v5 GP
2025–26	7	0	1	1	6	0.14	0.28	7
2024–25	5	1	0	1	14	0.20	0.37	5
2023–24	5	0	1	1	2	0.20	0.04	5
2022–23	1	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.18	1
2021–22	23	1	1	2	22	0.09	0.14	23
2020–21	20	1	9	10	33	0.50	0.17	20
2019–20	25	0	4	4	32	0.16	0.13	25
2018–19	4	0	3	3	7	0.75	0.20	4

	Opponent	Result		A		PPP	+/−	SOG		5v5 on-ice xG share	Game
Apr 17	@ NYR	L 0–4	13:56	0	0	—	-1	0	0.03	51.7%	View →
Apr 15	vs FLA	W 5–1	16:18	0	0	—	0	0	0.01	62.2%	View →
Apr 13	vs BUF	W 7–4	17:23	0	0	—	0	1	0.05	—	View →
Apr 11	vs DET	OTL 3–4 OT	17:59	0	0	—	2	2	0.06	—	View →
Apr 9	vs TOR	OTL 3–4 OT	14:43	0	0	—	-2	1	0.02	—	View →
Apr 7	@ NYR	W 5–1	18:38	0	0	0	1	0	0.01	37.6%	View →
Apr 5	@ BUF	OTL 2–3 SO	21:00	0	0	—	0	0	0.02	45.1%	View →
Apr 3	@ OTT	L 1–2	17:56	0	0	0	1	0	0.00	71.5%	View →
Apr 1	@ NYI	W 4–1	18:34	1	1	0	1	1	0.10	66.6%	View →
Mar 29	vs NYI	W 5–3	21:31	0	0	—	0	0	0.04	28.6%	View →
Filtered 10	—	5–2–3	17:48 avg	1	1	—	2	5	0.33	—	—

Season	Box score · all situations	5v5 individual	5v5 on ice	Season performance
2026–27	29	TBL	8	0	1	1	7	2	13	0.0	0	—	—	—	0.42	0.19	5.48	0.027	2.45	1.65	59.8	56.0	—	—	—	—
2025–26	28	TBL	61	3	8	11	3	74	53	5.7	0	17:37	—	—	0.68	0.15	3.42	0.029	2.38	2.23	51.6	49.0	—	—	—	—
2024–25	27	TBL	76	3	18	21	29	50	64	4.7	0	18:16	—	—	—	—	—	0.024	—	—	—	—	—	-0.145	—	—
2023–24	26	TBL	69	2	11	13	5	63	53	3.8	0	19:11	—	—	0.61	0.07	2.50	0.019	2.49	2.65	48.5	47.4	—	—	—	—
2022–23	25	TBL	70	2	14	16	8	53	87	2.3	0	19:14	—	—	0.66	0.23	4.63	0.037	3.37	2.77	54.8	51.7	—	—	—	—
2021–22	24	TBL	55	1	12	13	7	46	86	1.2	0	19:09	—	—	0.91	0.23	5.53	0.028	2.97	2.64	52.9	52.7	—	—	—	—
2020–21	23	TBL	46	5	13	18	8	38	85	5.9	0	19:47	—	—	1.23	0.31	6.74	0.033	2.62	2.05	56.1	54.5	—	—	—	—
2019–20	22	TBL	67	5	7	12	11	59	125	4.0	0	18:57	—	—	0.65	0.23	6.37	0.028	2.34	2.24	51.1	51.1	—	—	—	—
2018–19	21	TBL	58	5	11	16	25	58	107	4.7	1	19:15	—	—	0.97	0.26	6.67	0.030	2.78	2.41	53.5	51.3	—	—	—	—
Career	—	9 seasons	510	26	95	121	103	443	673	3.9	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.029	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

2 award records

Stanley Cup · 2020–21
Stanley Cup · 2019–20

Every metric name opens its definition; the full list lives in Metrics.

Traditional statistics cover all situations. Supporting five-on-five analyses use completed games, raw adjustment and exposure from xG model v4. The two samples can differ.

An em dash means unavailable, not zero. A partial season remains partial. Where a panel reports evidence coverage, its rates use only the covered games. History never substitutes a different model, and a missing appearance interrupts a rolling model window.

Shot maps use the same shot model as Game Center and show which model version scored recent shots beside the rink. Older seasons can use earlier model versions. High danger means a model scoring probability of at least 0.20 on an unblocked attempt; for goalies, medium danger is 0.08 to 0.20 and low is below 0.08.

Special-team buckets include the wider recorded man-advantage and man-down states, read from the player’s own team; for a goalie, penalty kill means facing a power play. Their ranks need 100 recorded minutes and at least 30 qualified peers; below 100 minutes, penalty-kill percentiles are provisional. Playoff values have no ranks or percentiles. Team share is player ice time divided by team ice time in that situation, over the games the player dressed. Zone starts describe faceoff-started five-on-five shifts and exclude on-the-fly starts.

Penalties count events, including one for a double minor; bench and served-by roles are excluded, and victimless infractions have no drawn role. EPV added sums changes in the probability that the possessing team scores next; it is not standings points or an isolated player grade. Rolling windows never cross seasons or season types, and a missed game is not a zero-performance appearance. Career rates use summed counts and exposure, never an average of season rates; a missing contributing season withholds its career metric, and Performance begins in 2023–24.

Explore the full methodology →

Season			Box score · all situations												5v5 individual				5v5 on ice					Season performance
Season	Age	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/−	PIM	SOG	Sh%	PPG	TOI/GP	Hits	Blk	P/60	ixG/60	SOG/60	xG/UA	xGF/60	xGA/60	xGF%	CF%	GF%	Perf/60	Grade	Rank
2026–27	29	TBL	8	0	1	1	7	2	13	0.0	0	—	—	—	0.42	0.19	5.48	0.027	2.45	1.65	59.8	56.0	—	—	—	—
2025–26	28	TBL	61	3	8	11	3	74	53	5.7	0	17:37	—	—	0.68	0.15	3.42	0.029	2.38	2.23	51.6	49.0	—	—	—	—
2024–25	27	TBL	76	3	18	21	29	50	64	4.7	0	18:16	—	—	—	—	—	0.024	—	—	—	—	—	-0.145	—	—
2023–24	26	TBL	69	2	11	13	5	63	53	3.8	0	19:11	—	—	0.61	0.07	2.50	0.019	2.49	2.65	48.5	47.4	—	—	—	—
2022–23	25	TBL	70	2	14	16	8	53	87	2.3	0	19:14	—	—	0.66	0.23	4.63	0.037	3.37	2.77	54.8	51.7	—	—	—	—
2021–22	24	TBL	55	1	12	13	7	46	86	1.2	0	19:09	—	—	0.91	0.23	5.53	0.028	2.97	2.64	52.9	52.7	—	—	—	—
2020–21	23	TBL	46	5	13	18	8	38	85	5.9	0	19:47	—	—	1.23	0.31	6.74	0.033	2.62	2.05	56.1	54.5	—	—	—	—
2019–20	22	TBL	67	5	7	12	11	59	125	4.0	0	18:57	—	—	0.65	0.23	6.37	0.028	2.34	2.24	51.1	51.1	—	—	—	—
2018–19	21	TBL	58	5	11	16	25	58	107	4.7	1	19:15	—	—	0.97	0.26	6.67	0.030	2.78	2.41	53.5	51.3	—	—	—	—
Career	—	9 seasons	510	26	95	121	103	443	673	3.9	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.029	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Erik Cernak

Season performanceSelected-season standing and the components behind the scoreCollapse

Score breakdown

Scoring

Comparisons

Coverage

Method

Season metrics

Season vs reference

Season comparisons

Rolling Radar

Rolling Radar

On-ice impact5v5What the team creates and allows during the player’s five-on-five minutesWhat the team creates and allows during the player’s five-on-five minutesExplore

Results vs expected

On ice vs off ice

Defense5v5 · AllOn-ice suppression and individual disciplineOn-ice suppression and individual disciplineExplore

Defensive metrics

Discipline & puck management

Penaltiesnet —

Puck eventsnet —

Shooting & finishingWhere the player shoots, the quality of those chances, and actual versus expected goalsWhere the player shoots, the quality of those chances, and actual versus expected goalsExplore

Shot map

Shooting by zone

Shot profile

Shot types

High-danger chances

Shot locations

Usage & deployment18:16 TOI per gameScoring by situation, zone starts and workloadExplore

Usage by situation

Where the 21 points come from · All situations

Zone starts — offensive of OZ + DZ

Shifts

Usage by situation

Special teamsPP · PKPower play and penalty killPower play and penalty killExplore

Power play

Penalty kill

FormExplore

Score breakdown

Scoring

Comparisons

Coverage

Method

Rolling Radar

Splits0.25 points per game at home · 0.31 awayVenue, rest and opponentExplore

By period and score state

Linemates5v5Most often with Ryan McDonagh: 976 five-on-five minutes, 52.9% xG share togetherExplore

Playoffs5 playoff games: 1 goal, 1 point · 90 career playoff gamesExplore

2024–25 playoffs

Playoff games

Every playoff run

Game log76 games · most recent at NYR, L 0–4: 0 G, 0 AOfficial totals and five-on-five evidenceExplore

Career9 NHL seasons: 510 games, 121 pointsEvery season and a recomputed career lineExplore

Data notesScopes, missing values and model evidenceExplore

2024–25 playoffs

Playoff games

Every playoff run

Defensive metrics

Discipline & puck management

Penaltiesnet —

Puck eventsnet —

Power play

Penalty kill

Results vs expected

On ice vs off ice

Shot map

Shooting by zone

Shot profile

Shot types

High-danger chances

Usage by situation

Where the 21 points come from · All situations

Zone starts — offensive of OZ + DZ

Shifts

By period and score state

Season metrics

Season vs reference